Welcome back for another article

Who are the best differentials this season? The low owned high potential gems.

You don't have to have a differential in FPL to do well, I always have a couple sprinkled in to my team. Every week there's higher owned players that blank, and you own an alternative at that price point who returns the upside is huge. It's also possible to go differential with captaincy, but only do this if you truly feel the low owned alternative is equally good.

Let's use GW1 as an example, Haaland is 75% currently, is all his owners captain then he's 150% owned effectively because all his points are doubled. Bruno is 50% owned, if half those owners captain him then he's only 75% owned. Bruno captain GW1 is a big differential vs Haaland captain.

Going no Haaland and no Bruno is the absolute extreme version of differential but very unlikely to work out, it's a sliding scale. That said in the experts series on my YouTube channel last season one manager gave himself a challenge going no Salah no Haaland all season and finished Top 10k.

What you don't do is force a full team of differentials, that won't work.

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So let's break this shortlist down by positions, we're not doing keepers just outfield players today.

⚽ Midfielders

Midfielders first, the shortlist is Wirtz, Mbeumo, Cunha, Dewsbury-Hall and Le Fee.

One of the biggest mistakes you can make at the start of a season, and I've been guilty of this as well to be fair, in judging a player too much on their first season, and letting biases creep in too much. There's some players such as Wirtz that is very relevant to in this article. He did just okay really 9 goal involvements, and we were all waiting for more to come. To give you some real world examples:

• Son signs for Spurs: 5 goal involvements. The next season 22 involvements and he sustained top numbers for years and years.

• Martinelli - not FPL relevant for years, 39 points, 36 points, 110, followed it up with 198 the next.

• Odegaard as well in fact, 40 points, 131 points followed up with 212 points.

• Bowen went from 141 points to 206 points.

• Gordon scored 1 goal after signing for Newcastle mid-season, 183 points the next season.

• Oh how about the best example there is. Mahrez's first Leicester season he got 99 points, 4 goals 3 assists. Next year 240 points with 28 goal involvements.

You get the point - things change fast in FPL and football and what was the case last season isn't anymore.

7.5m is a generous price and he could outscore the more popular Szoboszlai for all we know. Mbeumo and Cunha are just over 10% owned so aren't technically differential but that is extremely low owned for their upside, especially considering they have the two best opening fixtures of any team. Pair them with Bruno, or go no Bruno and run with Mbeumo and Cunha. Mbeumo's underlying numbers were superior last season but Cunha's long shots are among the best in the league. I'm wondering how Dorgu's return from injury potentially affects Cunha's minutes, which it did a bit last season until Dorgu's injury. As it stands I prefer Mbeumo.

Dewsbury-Hall comes in cheaper than those other 3, just 6.5m and had a really good season with 15 goal involvements. He hauled 4 times as well, with returns of 12, 13, 16 and 13 again. Returned in 12 of the 30 games he started.

Source: https://fpl.page/projections

Le Fee was someone I owned myself last season. He’s on penalties & set pieces, and is nailed on for Sunderland. Ipswich is a great GW1 fixture, then Fulham home GW2, Brentford away GW3. He's having a great pre-season, in the 2 games so far he's scored 3 goals including against Liverpool. Diarra could be on pens too, Le Bris indicated they'll pick and choose during games, but we'll have to see if Diarra reclaims a spot in the starting 11 having dropped out last season. Where Sunderland could struggle this season is juggling the Europa League, having qualified with the 7th place finish last season. That begins after GW3 or GW4 I think it is. For 6m he's a good option.

We all think we know what's going on and we're right, but a good FPL manager will constantly adapt to new information and be receptive to forming new opinions.

🛡️ Defenders

Let's take a look at defenders.

The 5 players are Canvot, Hume, Kerkez, Bijol and Colwill.

So Canvot and Bijol are grouped together here, let's cover those two first.

These two were phenomenal for defensive contributions last season. Canvot hit defcon in 64% of games, ranking third best after only the Bournemouth CB pairing Senesi and Hill. Senesi of course at Spurs now so avoid, it could be a different story playing at a different club and different manager, in fact it definitely will be. Bijol was also among the best in the league with a 52% hit rate. So those two were more likely than not to get you an extra +2 points last season. That's before you factor in clean sheet potential. Really solid for 5m. Defcon data from Fantasy Football Scout.

At Palace Mingueza is one player I'm monitoring as well, you've probably never heard of this guy, to be fair I only did a few days ago, he's 4.5m and Palace signed him for about 15m. Can play CB or RB. Last pre-season friendly he played he was CB. Can even play left back as well. New manager Sage primarily uses a 3-4-3 or 3-4-2-1 formation so there will be some similarities to Glasner's set up in all likelihood. 0.1% own Mingueza!

Source: https://fpl.page/projections

Hume is the cheapest of the lot here. He featured in all 38 premier league games, benched 4 times however. 2 goals and 1 assist, but he's incredible versatile, in those appearances 10 were left back, 17 were right back, 11 were in right mid or even right wing. He can play in DM and CB as well. He even wore the armband as vice captain when Xhaka was injured. He's been playing right wing in pre-season last game. A distant memory now but Sunderland fans won't have forgotten, GW38 last season was one of those 11 right wing appearances where he scored to put Sunderland ahead and they won the game. The only caveat is he's not really first choice in any position but Le Bris rates him enough to ensure he's starting basically every game, keep an eye out whether Sunderland sign a right winger, that could make him too risky to pick if there's serious competition.

Lastly Kerkez, who let's not forget earned his move to Liverpool after a fantastic season at Bournemouth under Iraola, who is now in charge at Liverpool. Robertson has left, he should be a nailed starter now and Iraola knows how to get the best out of him. Looking at the projected clean sheets of all the players here Liverpool are top which is another reason to consider him, Colwill second who is 5m. He's the most reliable cheap route in to Chelsea's defence.

🎯 Forwards

I've been very picky with the forwards and there only 3 true differentials that I like.

The list is Igor Jesus, Osula and Isak.

Let's talk about Osula first, only 2.4% owned. In his starts, he averaged 6.9 pts/90 compared to league average 4.58. And one thing I almost missed, is his shirt number change, he wore 18 last term - has now taken the number ten shirt. A sign of intent from Newcastle, he had a great end to last season and Newcastle's fixtures are amazing after the first couple gameweeks. There is a slight doubt over his minutes, could we see some early substitutions?

Igor Jesus has scored in all 3 pre-season games and starts the season home to Leeds, he's also 6m. Just based on the more secure minutes I'd currently favour him, minutes are a big big factor when selecting an FPL player. Osula will be better if he gets nothing but 90s but that's currently unclear. Igor's not immune to an early sub either but will get much better minutes most likely, he and Wood have been lining up together in pre-season by the way and we saw that at times last season.

Source: https://fpl.page/projections

Remember that point I made at the start of the season how fast things can change from one season to the next with that long list of examples given? Isak's another one. 9m is on the steep side but you go back the year before 29 goal involvements, the year before 25 goal involvements. That's what he's capable of, and he just needs a good injury free run. Ekitike is sidelined for like the rest of this year so his minutes should be fantastic as well.

Solanke is the last one worth a mention, I'm not quite there yet sold on him but 6m is extremely low. These articles are after all one man's opinion and might disagree with some suggestions and exclusions at times!

💡 Honourable Mentions

Lastly a few quick honourable mentions, these have question marks over them as it stands:

• Garner 🏥 - If he's back in time for GW1. Top scoring 6m and under mid last season. Only Anderson and Ampadu hit defcon more frequently per start. Garner did it in 52.6% of games.

• Bruno G 🔄 - Heavily linked with move to Arsenal. If it doesn't happen he is a fantastic pick for 7m. Potentially even on penalties. Great fixtures long term.

• Gross ⚽ - Welbeck linked with move to Chelsea. Potential pen share % if the move happens. Not a bad pick at 5.5m even if the move doesn't happen.

Thanks for reading. See you soon for the next one.