A small red arrow last gameweek 45 points all out in a week which threw up a few surprises, Calafiori benching, Joao Pedro injured, popular Saka replacements like Palmer, Rogers, Gibbs-White and Mbeumo blanking. Palmer getting sent off and Chelsea losing to Spurs at Stamford Bridge goalless for the first time in decade.
I was 1 minute away from getting Van Hecke off the bench for Thiaw, who was benched himself and came on for the final minute to block the auto-sub. Not that those would've been deserved points, I never saw the clean sheet for Spurs coming but still painful.
The fatal mistake was not selling Thiaw. I felt that Newcastle vs Palace would be a tight enough game to get away with leaving him in for another week, and Newcastle did keep the clean sheet but of course he and Botman got benched. Instead opted for King to Schade which had a bad outcome, such fine margins and really a reminder of the amount of luck in FPL though, Schade had a shot blocked off the line that was going in, accidentally blocked by Thiago, and King's assist was crazy, playing it to Bobb who had so much work to do but managed to create something out of nothing to score the winner. King had 0.08 xA for the entire game. So keeping hold of Thiaw was actually a -12 swing.
Going back to the point on how much FPL is out of your control, the Thiaw vs Hall swing has also been an absolute killer, that was a 50/50 on the GW3 wildcard but has also been a -19 swing! It was hard to separate them so I went for Thiaw who scored 4 times last year, massive set piece threat and did well for defcon but what ended up happening is Hall did fantastic scoring his first goal for about a year and more defcon than Thiaw, and Thiaw scoring an own goal! So it's about time to part ways with Thiaw who has ended up a shocking pick, he probably won't start next match following Burn and Schar's clean sheet in CB.
Bit of a ramble that but feeling optimistic.
Following the League Cup results there are 3 confirmed fixtures now, 6 teams confirmed not blanking. For those interested it's Brighton v Coventry. Nottm Forest v Villa. Hull v Chelsea. Some very good confirmed fixtures already. If Sunderland get knocked out then Arsenal don't blank either which makes it an easy chip-less week especially if you've got Raya because then you're not keeperless.
Anyway let's focus on next week. GW9 is a difficult puzzle with Joao Pedro's injury to also consider. Let's see if we can try and find the solution
On to the team for GW9.
🧤 Goalkeeper
In goal Raya faces Liverpool away which is going to be a very tough game, Arsenal missing Saka, Madueke also missing with an injury in Arsenal's league cup game midweek, losing to Fleetwood Town, and Dowman picking up a red card for violent conduct so he's out for 3 matches. Who even plays RW if Madueke isn't back and Dowman's red isn't overturned? Might be Havertz but I think Madueke will be alright. Calafiori also possibly a doubt for that game but very good depth there at least if needed.
🛡️ Defenders
The defence is Mendy, Van Hecke and Thiaw.
Thiaw is leaving the team this week, what an absolute disaster pick he's been! -19 swing on Hall incredibly harsh but that's the way it goes sometimes. If I had Hall I would have the luxury of being able to roll or spend a transfer somewhere else but he won't start in my opinion so he's a placeholder in the 11 for the incoming replacement.
One player I've been really pleased with is Van Hecke who has been very overlooked and he's ticked along really well with returns, and has a great fixture run ahead where he can be started in all the next 5 gameweeks. Leeds away the only one I might not start him but he's a much needed stability in my FPL team.
Spurs are actually top of the GW9 clean sheet odds given a 36% chance, but the odds aren't great this week so maybe we'll see a ton of goals. Chelsea, Bournemouth and Sunderland joint second on 29%. City, Villa, Brentford 28%, Arsenal 27%.
Jakirovic said the following on Mendy before last gameweek: Mendy is missing, yes. He's on the grass, which is good news, and I hope our plan is to join us from Monday. So he should be ready for Ipswich. So hopefully on Friday we get a good update on that confirming he's trained, in which case happy to start him this week home to Ipswich. He was very intentionally picked on the wildcard for weeks like this because back then I could see De Cuyper and Konsa had City and Liverpool. I should say, it's not out of the question Arsenal keep a clean sheet at Anfield, they can do it anywhere on their day but I like this week as a rare one to take on Arsenal's high ownership in defence.