Who are the best players to buy for GW7?
It's another Saturday deadline, with almost half the league playing midweek in Europe as well. Arsenal, Man Utd, Liverpool, Villa, Man City, Palace, Sunderland, Bournemouth and Brighton. It could be wise to wait before making transfers if you're able to just in case of any injuries midweek or any other developments.
🧤 Goalkeepers
Goalkeepers first, the best looking fixtures for clean sheet potential are Man City home to Ipswich, Arsenal have Forest away, Spurs have Coventry home, Fulham have Hull home. There's a couple more you could include like Brighton and Bournemouth home to Palace and Sunderland as well. There's also potential for some big scorelines so we'll dig in to mids and forwards in a minute.
The keepers table for GW7 is Raya, Donnarumma, Leno, Kinsky, Verbruggen, Petroic, Martinez then Hornicek.
Despite the 5 conceded last game Bournemouth have actually been solid as far as underlying numbers, here's the state of play after 6 gameweeks. They're fourth in the league for expected goals conceded with 8.04, just ahead of Man City and Everton. Behind Arsenal, Forest and Liverpool who are the top 3.
They actually only conceded 1.1 xG against Chelsea which makes the 5 conceded unbelievable, and they're hitting a good fixture run, so Petrovic could be the best 4.5m keeper if buying from this week and of course there's options in defence as well, Silva and Truffert my favourites, Silva only 5m, Truffert 5.5m in full back so he's got the goal involvement potential and actually does well for defcons.
Bournemouth are fourth for projected clean sheets over the next 8 gameweeks, or joint fourth with Liverpool. Spurs are actually just marginally ahead in third so don't write Kinsky off, they're unlucky to be where they are in the table. Yes they've not been great but not relegation bad. They were bang in the middle on the defence table.
Just looking at that table again, Palace have been far and away the worst defence. Henderson's injury hasn't helped at all. Ipswich second worst, Villa a surprise in third bottom just behind Fulham and Chelsea who are also surprisingly low!
The data table is from Fantasy Football Scout. If you go in to community tables and search FPL Focal you can steal all the ones I use in articles, and get the tons of other tools included in membership. s.id/FPLFocal
🛡️ Defenders
Defenders next and De Cuyper just became the top scoring defender in the league after a goal, clean sheet and max bonus for a 15 pointer. Third double digit return of the season.
He's top of the defenders table as well, remember what we were saying about Palace's defensive data this season, well Brighton face them home next. 3.34 xG conceded against Forest last gameweek so it was more of the same, 24 shots conceded more than any team on the weekend.
Is it too late though? After next weekend they have Liverpool away, then Man City away.
It's always boiled down to Mitoma and when he's back, he wasn't in the squad on the weekend, so he's clearly not there yet and even when he returns we can expect a cameo off the bench first so I would say not too late and realistically the way we should be looking at it when it comes to those Liverpool and City games is that he's a 5.1m winger that gets 4 points for a clean sheet instead of 1 point like mids normally do. So a clean sheet would be a bonus in either game if you start him, that aside there's the chance of a goal or assist, and don't forget defenders also get an extra point for a goal compared to mids, 2 more than forwards. But it's hard for them to get bonus when conceding because BPS punishes defenders harshly when conceding.
Van Hecke's next 5 look great and for 4.9m I would strongly consider him, 19.9 points over the next 5 can actually only be beaten by Gabriel and Calafiori among all defenders. This feels like a very very important game for Spurs next, home to Coventry.
De Cuyper's the hype pick but Vuskovic has quietly been phenomenal, 6 0 12 6 8 and 8 points. One blank all season. If you're low on transfers and looking at Brighton defence it could actually be better to go Vuskovic and save yourself a transfer out for De Cuyper in a few gameweeks, whereas Vuskovic could be a season keeper.
Gabriel's been very bad value so far, especially considering Calafiori's outscored him for way cheaper and even White is only a point behind with fewer games played but obviously don't buy White now Timer is back. I actually wouldn't sell him to Calafiori unless it was part of a combination of transfers, it could be a little sideways as a single move in isolation. At some point Gabriel will bounce back with a haul and I'd only sell if you can use the money freed up for an upgrade elsewhere.
Silva at 5m is really appealing going back to the point on their good defence data, good fixtures and he's good for defcons. 3 boxes ticked.
For the first time this season let's have a look at the defcon data. If you go to fpl.page/stats or statistics in the Focal app, there's a Load Preset button. These are preset tables I've made for you to plug and play so you don't have to mess around doing it yourself.
There's one for defcon defenders and one for defcon mids.
Looking at defenders Mendy is top in the league for defcons per 90 with 13.81, followed by Fofana, Botman, Mukiele, Tarkowski, Muharemovic.
That isn't to say these are all buys but I use this to help piece it all together when deciding on a defender, if they concede then you want a good shot at them getting you defcon points still. Mendy, Tarkowski, Muharemovic, Thomas, Silva, Vuskovic, Hall are all among the best in the league for defcons and in my eyes also very good picks to consider in FPL.
fpl.page/stats if you want to have a further look at all of that and the mids.
⚽ Midfielders
So let's have a look at the best mids to buy for GW7.
The table this week is Saka, Palmer, Bruno, Savio, Gross, Semenyo, Tavernier and Enzo.
A frustrating blank for Saka owners, right at the death a 1 on 1 with Trafford which he failed to convert, however 4.6 expected goal involvement is top of all midfielders, without the pen he's taken he's still second, Mbeumo actually top among mids for non-pen xGI.
So keep the faith in Saka, Havertz fortunately was passed fit enough to start and you want him on the pitch to ensure Saka's on penalties.
Rogers, Palmer, Joao Pedro now have 11 goals and 8 assists between them. 19 goal involvements in 17 games and it really does make you wonder whether to just go triple attack if you're not already and just accept that in the weeks they don't score like Brentford before the break you'll probably get a red, but in the weeks where Chelsea do score more than 1 you're very likely to have multiple goal involvements and therefore probably a good gameweek.
Even though he costs the most Palmer has the fewest points of the 3 but that could of course quickly change, but perhaps there's a valid case for Joao Pedro, Rogers and have Saka but not Palmer as well, giving you plenty of money to spread around your team.
Another assist for Gross last match, 8 goal involvements in 6 games and no midfielder has more points, he really could be a season keeper so for 6.0m he's still a bargain for what he offers. Better late than never if you don't own. While I'd expect his returns to slow down it's just too good to pass up on when a 6m mid is playing for a good team, has corners and free kicks and penalties. FPL cheat code.
Tavernier is the player I've used for the player photo this week, on 5 projected points home to Sunderland next, likely to still be without Ballard and Brobbey plus those long term fixtures. He's also on pens albeit temporarily until Kluivert or Kroupi are back, but has some free kick and corner duties himself and 3 goals in 6. Really nice option for 6.1m, especially if you've got someone like Sangare or Schade that needs replacing, assuming Schade's injury will rule him out for a bit.
Man City vs Ipswich feels like it could be a cricket score, Semenyo and Enzo make the table, Cherki's obviously been superb as well and got 90 last match for the first time this season. It's worth noting that they face PSG midweek which might give a clue who starts vs Ipswich, Foden is back from suspension as well. I would swerve Cherki now Foden's back, Enzo and Semenyo are the only two I'd consider.
Fulham are home to Hull which feels like a must win after losing to Ipswich last match, so King still worth considering for 5.6m given he has Coventry after that but it's a shorter term pick potentially.
Gibbs-White drops off the table with Forest facing Arsenal, keep hold despite the fixture and just bench if you've got good depth. It's unbelievable he blanked against Palace, same vs Coventry before, good underlying data and the eye test just very unlucky for owners. He had a shot from distance in the Palace game which rattled the crossbar and Delap had the whole goal to aim at on the follow up and he blasted it straight in to Benitez.
🎯 Forwards
on to the forwards then we'll look at team of the week.
Safe to say Haaland will be by far the most captained player in FPL by an absolute distance this week and I wouldn't overthink it. He's on among the most projected points we've seen all season here, do you triple captain him?
Again the PSG game should hopefully give us some indication of his minutes. Maresca has said in his pressers that now and then Semenyo can play in striker to give Haaland some rest, perhaps he starts and comes off early again if the game's wrapped up like the Liverpool game.
Gonzalo is second on the table, I don't mind him for 6.1m but he needs to start finding the net. 0.68 xGI last game 1.02 the game before. He has 1 goal from 3 xG this season. Solanke has a solid fixture but I don't like him as a long term option, Joao Pedro is just becoming must have if he's not already. If you've got Wissa then it's a potentially sideways swap this week that can be delayed to GW8 but if you don't have Joao Pedro and fed up with not owning his highownership hauls then I can understand going early to protect yourself. Newcastle are playing home to Villa. Besides Haaland and Joao Pedro there aren't any particularly exciting forwards at the moment and it might be time to swap to 3-5-2 soon if you're not on that formation.
⭐ Team of the Week
So finishing up with team of the week. What's the best team you can build maximising the projected points in this article?
- 🧤 It's Raya in goal
- 🛡️ De Cuyper, Van Hecke and Vuskovic in defence
- ⚽ Gross, Palmer, Saka and Savio in midfield
- 🎯 Gonzalo, Haaland and Solanke up front
On the bench Leno, Tavernier, Affengruber and Konsa.
Doesn't look like a good free hit week this week either looking at that team. Though if you were using it you'd definitely go triple City and hope the minutes are good enough for your triple up. How many players have you got from the team this week?
Thanks for reading, see you soon for the next one.