Welcome back for another article. 📖
66 points in the ongoing double, not enough to secure a green in fact 9 points off one so it's safe to say it won't be a rank rise. New rank 17.4k. The positives being double Brighton defence clean sheet, and Gabriel coming in for Struijk who went off injured while Gabriel hit defcon and earned max bonus for an 11 pointer. Gross assist in midfield the only return however, Bruno, Tavernier, Palmer blanking with Cherki off at 59 minutes in his first game. Let's see if he starts the second game ahead of the final.
Pep was asked if he'll rotate and said:
"It's not a problem for that game, we arrive with 4 days and a half (rest), but of course after 3 days we travel to London and after we come back (to Manchester), and then Bournemouth. So of course with 3 days I have to think about it, yeah."
So he seems to be implying the Bournemouth game after the final is at more risk of rotation.
As it stands I'm 14 points outside 10k so it feels out of reach now, have given it everything but making that up will require some significant luck, the reason being the ownership of Gabriel, O'Reilly, Bruno and Haaland are so high they don't help with rank. In fact Arsenal clean sheets hurt rank and they've got two good fixtures. I'm weighing up whether to try one final thing for maximum variance, that could leave me 50k in GW38, or if the stars align top 10k. Would I rather that or settle for roughly where I am now? Either way I'll definitely be bringing in an Arsenal player or two this week. Let's go through the team for GW37.
🧤 Goalkeeper
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So even in goal this week a huge call to make, the intention is to go double defence, it's Verbruggen in goal with a defence of Van Hecke, O'Reilly and Gabriel. 🧤
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We've got Darlow and Bijol on the bench do you go double Leeds defence with the home fixture, but nothing to play for now, or Brighton playing away with Europe to play for, but playing away?
🛡️ Defenders
- Leeds have actually been incredible defensively recently, over the last 6 matches played, that's matches not gameweeks so it's an equal number of games for all teams since some have doubled. 🛡️
- Leeds are best in the league for expected goals conceded with only 5.78 xGC. They're the only team that have conceded single digit big chances with just 8. 5 goals conceded is second fewest.
- So I think this is actually a really tight call. Realistically despite all the analysis they might just both concede because the clean sheet odds aren't great if we look at it that way. Brighton have been given a 25% chance, Leeds a 18% chance.
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Again I'm thinking about which would be more beneficial to rank if I want to chase the highest variance, there will be lots starting Brighton defence this week and very few playing Leeds let alone double. If Leeds were to win that 1 or 2 nill it could be a difference maker.
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That all said, Brighton defence is still great for rank gains next week. Bijol averages 10.15 defcons per 90, van Hecke averages 8.94 though the Brighton CB has 6 goal involvements this season.
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Struijk went off injured last match which could perhaps be the tipping point to go double Brighton defence, if he's a doubt or out for GW37.
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Arsenal have the best clean sheet odds we'll have seen all season so Gabriel is a viable captain, last gameweek was his 6th double digit return of the season. If he can have one of those goal and clean sheet type games you're looking at 15 points potential or 30 as captain. And if he's your only Arsenal defender it's a way to ensure you get a rank rise off an Arsenal clean sheet. 🏆
⚽ Midfielders