Welcome back for another article. 📖
66 points in the ongoing double, not enough to secure a green in fact 9 points off one so it's safe to say it won't be a rank rise. New rank 17.4k. The positives being double Brighton defence clean sheet, and Gabriel coming in for Struijk who went off injured while Gabriel hit defcon and earned max bonus for an 11 pointer. Gross assist in midfield the only return however, Bruno, Tavernier, Palmer blanking with Cherki off at 59 minutes in his first game. Let's see if he starts the second game ahead of the final.
Pep was asked if he'll rotate and said:
"It's not a problem for that game, we arrive with 4 days and a half (rest), but of course after 3 days we travel to London and after we come back (to Manchester), and then Bournemouth. So of course with 3 days I have to think about it, yeah."
So he seems to be implying the Bournemouth game after the final is at more risk of rotation.
As it stands I'm 14 points outside 10k so it feels out of reach now, have given it everything but making that up will require some significant luck, the reason being the ownership of Gabriel, O'Reilly, Bruno and Haaland are so high they don't help with rank. In fact Arsenal clean sheets hurt rank and they've got two good fixtures. I'm weighing up whether to try one final thing for maximum variance, that could leave me 50k in GW38, or if the stars align top 10k. Would I rather that or settle for roughly where I am now? Either way I'll definitely be bringing in an Arsenal player or two this week. Let's go through the team for GW37.
🧤 Goalkeeper
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So even in goal this week a huge call to make, the intention is to go double defence, it's Verbruggen in goal with a defence of Van Hecke, O'Reilly and Gabriel. 🧤
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We've got Darlow and Bijol on the bench do you go double Leeds defence with the home fixture, but nothing to play for now, or Brighton playing away with Europe to play for, but playing away?
🛡️ Defenders
- Leeds have actually been incredible defensively recently, over the last 6 matches played, that's matches not gameweeks so it's an equal number of games for all teams since some have doubled. 🛡️
- Leeds are best in the league for expected goals conceded with only 5.78 xGC. They're the only team that have conceded single digit big chances with just 8. 5 goals conceded is second fewest.
- So I think this is actually a really tight call. Realistically despite all the analysis they might just both concede because the clean sheet odds aren't great if we look at it that way. Brighton have been given a 25% chance, Leeds a 18% chance.
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Again I'm thinking about which would be more beneficial to rank if I want to chase the highest variance, there will be lots starting Brighton defence this week and very few playing Leeds let alone double. If Leeds were to win that 1 or 2 nill it could be a difference maker.
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That all said, Brighton defence is still great for rank gains next week. Bijol averages 10.15 defcons per 90, van Hecke averages 8.94 though the Brighton CB has 6 goal involvements this season.
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Struijk went off injured last match which could perhaps be the tipping point to go double Brighton defence, if he's a doubt or out for GW37.
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Arsenal have the best clean sheet odds we'll have seen all season so Gabriel is a viable captain, last gameweek was his 6th double digit return of the season. If he can have one of those goal and clean sheet type games you're looking at 15 points potential or 30 as captain. And if he's your only Arsenal defender it's a way to ensure you get a rank rise off an Arsenal clean sheet. 🏆
⚽ Midfielders
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So the midfield as it stands is Bruno, Cherki, Palmer and Gross. ⚽
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I'm looking at anywhere from none to 2 transfers for a hit in midfield this week.
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Man City are awkward this week because we're all tripled up and they play the FA Cup final on the weekend 3 days after the Palace game, and that game is before their GW37 fixture so if anything happens in the final to one of our City assets you can't do anything about it.
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You can make a reasonable case for selling a City mid this week if you've got Cherki or Semenyo and can afford Saka for example.
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Obviously it's the same story with Chelsea who play in the final two and I'm currently doubled up. Chelsea have always done well in this fixture though and Palmer is now a crazy differential, he was about 10% owned around my rank last gameweek so part of me is tempted to keep despite how poor Chelsea have been.
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Bruno gets the armband, you'd have to go back to the 24th of November the last time Bruno blanked at Old Trafford, in that 1 - 0 loss to Everton. Anyway that's 6 months since he blanked in the league so I'm quite comfortable captaining him when I expect many will turn to Saka for captaincy. 🎗️
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And this is why part of me is thinking skip Saka, because if I buy him then I am guaranteeing that either he or Bruno does not impact my rank at all. If I buy Saka and captain him then Bruno is about 99% owned at my rank anyway.
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Gross is the final midfielder, he's assisted in every game since buying but this does feel like a low ceiling game for him so again it's tempting to take a hit to remove him and chase someone with big upside.
🎯 Forwards
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Up front it's gonna be Thiago, Haaland and Joao Pedro. 🎯
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I like the fixture for Thiago, Palace home. Given Brentford have a very good chance of European football if they can just win these next two games, and Palace are mathematically safe now with a main focus on that Europa final.
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He's produced 6 double digit returns this season, lots benched him last gameweek obviously but he was only 9% owned around my rank last gameweek so he's got potential to be a difference maker still. 🌟
- The really difficult call is who to sell, Joao Pedro, Palmer or even neither.
🪑 Bench + Transfer Plans
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The bench is Darlow, Bijol, Tavernier and Hill. 🪑
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So decision one is who to start double Leeds defence, or double Brighton defence.
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Decision 2 is who to sell this week.
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As it stands my plan is Joao Pedro to Gyokeres, and potentially even a -4 for Dewsbury-Hall selling Gross to really try and get lucky. 🔄
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I've been really impressed with Dewsbury-Hall, 15 goal involvements this season, 4 double digit returns and it's a great fixture playing Sunderland home.
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Alternatively there's Palmer to Saka which is still great and perhaps Palmer's fitness is a concern just 3 days after the FA Cup final. If I get Saka I can afford Ndiaye for that Sunderland fixture, he's on pens, though I could even afford Trossard and back Trossard to repay the hit with a goal in that game.
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I've even considered Van Hecke to Saliba and back the Arsenal clean sheet but it's scary going in to Burnley home without any attacker.
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So going back to the Gyokeres move, if I do that it'll probably be just for 1 week, and then in GW38 sell him for Bowen for Leeds home. In my eyes there's a good chance Havertz starts the CL final which makes me concerned about Gyokeres's minutes.
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As it stands the plan is Joao Pedro to Gyokeres. What would you do?
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Thanks for reading, see you soon for the next one. 👋
Please note my team and plans aren’t locked in and can change!