107 points and a big green arrow, and the wildcard now active. Proper rollercoaster gameweek, it was looking very very bad before Man Utd had played sat ranked just under 7 millionth with basically no returns barring Haaland's brace which only hurt rank. Then Man Utd batter Ipswich and Bruno registers the biggest score we've seen in FPL in over a year, 23 pointer from a hat trick and an assist, well played. The scary part is that in my eyes the best GW3 or GW4 wildcard does not include him, could that be a big mistake to lose him after such a monster return?

Should also point that it was just inevitable that the bench did well after a carefully planned GW1 bench, Gross ends up with a goal and an assist at Stamford bridge, max bonus,13 pointer, Hume keeps a clean sheet as well for 21 points benched. Couldn't write it could you! ⚽

So, wildcard active. Why? 🤔

The plan before the season started was GW4 so it's a week earlier, a few factors contributed, one was Tzolis getting taken off at half time vs Villa, didn't have a great game and obviously too early to assess him, I'm sure he'll be a great pick long term but with some uncertainty over whether he or Eze starts vs Chelsea it meant I was making a transfer in GW3, so it's a transfer saved this week.

Another factor - I was looking at how I'd line up in GW4 on the wildcard and it was almost identical to GW3 so there's a case for bringing it forward in those situations if you think there's enough to gain in doing so one week early. Another factor was team value, like a 0.5m team value swing to take advantage and that's after only activating it last night let alone if I'd gone last Friday like many did. And activating it later than others has presented an opportunity I really like, all GW3 wildcards have Palmer vs Arsenal away, Palmer rose last Friday and won't again before the deadline, so there's an opportunity to chuck in a City attacker in his place, then swap to Palmer in GW4. So in this set up you get triple Man City attack home to Coventry, then double Chelsea attack home to Hull. Plus the rest of the team has been refreshed.

🧤 Goalkeeper

Let's run through it and one of the arguable downsides to the GW3 wildcard is Arsenal facing Chelsea, not an easy fixture and I've opted for Raya in goal who is going to be set & forget all the way until the second wildcard unless he gets injured or something. I know he's expensive but I do like the idea of paying the premium and not to have to mess around trying to guess the right 4.5m keeper. Kinsky, Verbruggen, Petrovic, Leno - one of them will do well. Rotating Kinsky and Leno gives you an incredible run of fixtures, it does have potential but going to set & forget Raya.

Leno x Kinsky?

🛡️ Defenders

In defence it's Gabriel, Hall and Thiaw.

Gabriel another set & forget spot for obvious reasons. Very expensive but if he scores anything close to last season he'll be well worth it and early signs are Arsenal's defence is going to remain the best in the league. 209 points for 8m is actually fantastic, let's not forget Haaland for 7.5 million more scored just 30 more points. I think it's very important on a wildcard to build a robust long term team and he ticks that box.

Arsenal are actually third on the clean sheet odds, Man City top on 48%, Brentford 40%, Arsenal 36%, Villa and Brighton 34%.

Double Newcastle defence is perhaps not ideal this gameweek, but just to clarify that is not the set up every week. It's just GW3, 5 and 6. So Bournemouth home, Hull home, Coventry away. Outside of that one of them goes on the bench for strong depth. Newcastle's long term fixtures are so good and they're actually looking much better than many expected myself included. Could it be a similar story to Brentford last season? Who remembers when they lost Frank, Norgaard, Mbeumo, Wissa etc and many thought they'd be in trouble but they looked better than ever. Newcastle have lost Tonali, Bruno G, Gordon, Howe and I've been impressed by them. Van Hecke is another one I'm looking at if he drops to 4.9m before the deadline, he's getting close.

I still expect Spurs to do well and we shouldn't jump to conclusions after 2 GWs. Dedic for 4.5m is worth a mention, an assist last gameweek and the clean sheet, the game before 2 assists in the league cup. Extremely attacking player, Livramento is meant to be back some time this month but it seems to be Dedic's spot to lose, and this quote makes me think Livramento isn't actually near threatening Dedic's minutes:

'First of all, we're happy that he is back in training. Now, also fully integrated, he still follows some of his individual program. Sooner than later he is fully back in training, and then we can also talk [about] the squad when he is able to be in the matchday squad, getting the first minutes. But again, step-by-step, and take our time.'

Ultimately I'm just trying to set up a very robust team which is why I opted for Hall for the extra 0.5m, he does have defcon in both games so far and an attacking player himself.

⚽ Midfielders

The midfield is Anderson, Semenyo, Sangare, Szoboszlai and Gross.

I'm expecting Anderson to be a great pick long term, 14 defcons last game, he'll continue to churn out consistent defcon returns and will finish the season on something like 10 goal involvements. So he's a patient, long term pick.

Sangare is the same and I was a bit a bit conflicted whether to include him, because I can afford O'Reilly or Gvardiol instead of Hall if I drop Sangare to Slater. If you could tell me with 100% certainty that Gvardiol and O'Reilly will never miss a game they'd be in, but Cit's depth is absolutely ridiculous, I think the few nailed players are Haaland, Anderson and probably Semenyo. But in left back you've got Gvardiol, O'Reilly, Ait-Nouri that can play there. Left centre back Gvardiol and Guehi. In midfield O'Reilly has so much competition as well, so I'm wondering if there's a chance Maresca uses some of those quote unquote easier upcoming games to rotate just a little, such as Ipswich home. Those are the games you want them.

Who remembers that chart from pre-season, Alex showing where Sangare plots for defcons per 90 and xGI/90. It's a small sample size but he's recreating those exact same numbers. 0.34 xGI per 90, 14.7 defcons per 90. Almost exactly in the same spot on the chart as he was last season. So he looks amazing for 5.7m, and he has Sunderland home. And just for added context, I've taken a chance on Konsa but not for this gameweek, upgrading Slater gives me Sangare home to Sunderland which just makes sense.

So yeah those that had committed to WC3 back on Friday picked up Palmer before he rose, I missed that rise but I've spotted an opportunity which is chucking in another Man City attacker home to Coventry, and leave enough in the bank to swap them to Palmer in GW4. It's a rare exception where I think a booked in transfer after a wildcard could be worth it, given the fixtures plus I've got a second free transfer banked, and have set up with good bench depth in case something else goes wrong.

The question is then, which Man City attacker? Cherki, or Semenyo, or Foden?

I know Cherki just scored a brace, though I think he will come off early again - might not matter obviously, he could have hauled by then. Semenyo has played back to back 90s and that was the trend last season, he was getting the best minutes of the attackers plus Haaland of course. So I'm going for him.

Szoboszlai and Gross are one of the few players that remain in the team so we'll pretty much skip over them, in my eyes they're just such good picks for their price with the free kicks, corners, pens. Gross showed last match what he's capable of, 13 pointer even in a game like Chelsea away.

🎯 Forwards

Up front it's Wissa and Haaland.

Haaland captain obviously, he's on 5 stars on the captain tool so it's not even close, everyone else on 1 star. Well played if you followed the captain tool last week for Bruno's 23 pointer! 👑

Woltemade has left Newcastle, think it's a loan for the season. I'm really liking Wissa for 6.1m, he'll probably even be on pens and we know from a couple years back what his level can be with 24 goal involvements in the league. He's returned in both games so far, and look at the fixtures. Bournemouth, Leeds, Hull, Coventry, Villa, Palace, Everton, Fulham. They're really good long term. For projected goals they're 6th top and that's behind Man City, Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man Utd.

Source: https://fpl.page/projections

Bookies odds for GW3 have Man City far and away top on 3.0 goals, Liverpool second on 2.3, Arsenal, Brentford 1.9.

Saka is a very valid option on the wildcard, it's easy to have Saka, Palmer and Haaland in a team, basically means dropping Gabriel to Calafiori, Anderson to Saka, and finding 0.3m from somewhere else like one of the Newcastle defenders to a 4.5m one or losing Raya. Really could go either way that one, I've gone for the most robust set up possible, it might not happen but at some point Hincapie could come in, Saka's injury record isn't the best. Whereas Gabriel, Hall, Anderson are 3 solid reliable picks.

🪑 Bench + Transfer Plans

So let's do the bench, it's Steele, Joao Pedro, Konsa and O'Shea.

• One more week without Joao Pedro in the starting 11. Going to take on his ownership one more time for that Arsenal game, which in itself is massive upside. An Arsenal clean sheet isn't just huge because it would be clean sheet points from Raya and Gabriel but also would mean Joao Pedro has blanked.

• On those projected goals bookies odds you might not have even spotted Chelsea, they've got them on 1.0 projected goals. Third from bottom. Could backfire but the odds suggest it's a valid strategy for GW3.

• The hope is that Konsa breaks in to the team imminently, potentially even this gameweek vs Chelsea and then he's a set & forget starter as well. For 4.4m if it happens he'll be a joke for that cheap. And I wouldn't expect Arteta to chop and change it, once he gives Konsa that start then that's it, the minutes are invaluable to build a CB partnership with Gabriel and Mosquera will get cup games.

1.4m left in the bank, which is the Semenyo to Palmer switch with 0.3m left over. 💰

Lastly let's talk triple captain, this feels like a very good week to use it because Man City get a full week before Coventry home, other fixtures later have midweek football either side. Ipswich home, Sunderland home, Hull home are the obvious alternates and I will 100% be using it in one of those. Sunderland could potentially be going under the radar, they have Arsenal, then Europa midweek, then Man City a few days later. That is a very rough run. But after Ipswich just condeded 5 to Man Utd in the way they did maybe they're even better, Man City have PSG 3 days before though which isn't the best, but at least it's a home fixture so it's two home games in a row. ⚡

That's the wildcard team, what do you think? Hopefully I've explained myself well why and how I landed on the decision.

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Please note my team and plans aren’t locked in and can change!