Welcome back for another article. 📖
Who are the best players to buy for GW28?
Let's take a look at where we should be spending transfers this week, broken down nice and simple by position. ⬇️
🧤 Goalkeepers
Goalkeepers first, the best fixtures at a glance defensively are Brentford playing Burnley and Liverpool home to West Ham. Kelleher and Alisson are the top 2 keepers this week, Raya in fact joint top with them with Arsenal home to Chelsea but that doesn't feel as secure for a clean sheet. 🧤
Brentford's fixtures are fantastic, after Burnley they've got Bournemouth, Wolves, Leeds, Everton, Fulham, and Kelleher is top of all keepers for projected points over the next 5 gameweeks. You can always back a team against Burnley. They've amassed 21.14 xG nonpenalty this season which is rock bottom. By the way Sunderland are second bottom in that respect, then Wolves, Spurs, Everton. 📉
Interestingly even with penalties stripped out, which Chelsea have had a ton of they're still top in the league for non-pen xG. Anyway, Chelsea's fixtures turn now so we're not looking to buy their attackers. Chelsea could get a DGW33 of Man Utd home and Brighton away so we'll definitely be back.
So that's the best attacks, as far as the best defences Arsenal will likely hold that top spot for the remainder of the season, only 19.17 xG conceded which is ridiculously far ahead of next best, Man City with 30.31 xG conceded. Then Liverpool, Man Utd perhaps surprisingly high in 4th, then Newcastle. Burnley sit bottom for xG conceded as well, then West Ham, Wolves, Bournemouth, Leeds. 🛡️
Raya has a few good fixtures after the Chelsea game, I definitely would not sell him for anyone. I'd only consider a keeper transfer if you've got a keeper with bad fixtures, like Sanchez has Arsenal, Villa, Newcastle. Pickford has Newcastle, Arsenal, Chelsea in his next 4. Hermansen has Liverpool, City, Villa etc. 🧤
🛡️ Defenders
Let's move on to defenders, this week Senesi is top with Bournemouth playing home to Sunderland. Bournemouth are a strange one, they are second best after Arsenal for xGC in home games, but in away games they're worst in the league. Senesi is on 8 yellow cards so I'd actually opt for Hill, as there's an outside chance Senesi gets those 2 yellows in the next 3 games and misses BGW31. Though if you weren't planning to use him in 31 either way it doesn't matter so much. 🛡️
Van Dijk has 28 points in 2 games, and a home game vs West Ham. 9.56 defcons per 90, he's worth the 5.9m, top of all defenders for the next 5 gameweek projections on FPL Review. Konate is an alternative for 5.4m but VVD is worth the .5m difference if you can afford it.
Andersen makes the table again, playing home to Spurs next. 10.4 defcons per 90 for him, ranks 4th best among defenders, you can start him in all the next 4 gameweeks so he's perfect for 4.5m, especially that Burnley home fixture in BGW31. It's probably sensible to have some defensive coverage for that one.
Thiaw's next 4 aren't as good, but this week and GW31 are great, Everton home and Sunderland home, with Man Utd and Chelsea in between those two games. Thiaw is a potential O'Reilly replacement for me in GW31.
Van Den Berg looks the best Brentford defender potentially at 4.5m, Kayode missed out last match but should hopefully be back in GW28, they missed him vs Brighton. And then it's O'Reilly with 4.3 points, which is actually joint third most this week with Andersen, Thiaw, Hill, Van Den Berg. 30 points in 2 games, playing in midfield now, which isn't an unfamiliar position to him by the way, his natural role is in midfield, he put up crazy numbers playing in the Man City academy there, for example at u18's level 38 goal involvements in 46 games.
It's just that blank in GW31 that makes him a difficult buy right now, but if he carries on with goal involvements or clean sheets it won't matter. I wouldn't buy unless you can still definitely get 11 players out in GW31, otherwise it's just going to have to be one you pass up on and get him after the blank. 🐝