Welcome back for another article.
A fantastic gameweek in the double, 64 points with Raya, Rice, Mane and triple captain Gabriel left to play. I've not had much luck with the triple captain chip the last couple seasons, last season it was on Haaland vs Southampton where he ended on 6, then on Haaland again vs Leeds earlier this season which scored 2, Gabriel 3 pointer in the first game, it all comes down to the Wolves fixture whether it's a success this time round. He was quite lucky to have avoided a red card which would have been a complete disaster. 994,000 triple captain chips were played in total for the double.
The gameweek was carried by two players, O'Reilly and Virgil. You might remember I was incredibly close to selling him for Munoz, and was also very close to starting Mukiele who was at least guaranteed to start and was undefeated in home games. This is a bit sad but I suppose it is literally my job, I got Gemini to do a deep research going through every page on the Man City forums and then produce a table of all Man City players and what % of the time they appear in predicted line-ups, first time I've ever found a good use for AI in FPL. He was in about 80% of predictions which was enough for me to chance it. He's been playing as an 8 out of position recently, which afforded him the position he took up deep in Fulham's box to smash in his goal. And then Van Dijk goes and scores in his game as well, plus the clean sheet, defcon and bonus for a 17 pointer. Absolutely crazy couple of scores between those two, in fairness they've really tested the patience, Van Dijk scoring me 0 last week, lots of 1 and 2 pointers between him and O'Reilly.
So 64 points and a locked in green arrow regardless of whatever happens in the final DGW game, though a Gabriel clean sheet would be very welcomed to avoid the TC flop.
📅 Chip Strategy
Chip strategy for the rest of the season is now pretty clear to me. The FA Cup 4th round is over, the 5th round draw is out and whoever progresses likely blanks in GW34. The blank in GW34 likely moves back to GW33. As it stands all 20 Premier League teams can double in GW33. Graphic on the left from FPL Spaceman with % likelihoods of a clash in GW34.
Some teams are much likelier than others and we're likeliest to have 8 teams doubling, that's also the most possible that will double in GW33. For example Arsenal drew Mansfield Town so they will be massive favourites to knock them out and get a DGW.
Potential DGW33 fixtures:
So based on the progression percentages the 8 teams that would be likeliest to double in GW33, and blank in GW34 would be Arsenal, Brighton, Burnley, Chelsea, Crystal Palace, Liverpool, Man City and Newcastle.
Therefore my current strategy is:
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BGW31: Dead end my team. I'll probably sell Haaland that week even though it'll cost like 0.3m to buy back, and will have sold other players that blank like O'Reilly and Rice.
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GW32: Wildcard.
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DGW33: Bench Boost.
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BGW34: Free Hit.
Most probable GW33 fixtures:
Those potential doubles in GW33 aren't incredible but they're all teams you'll want to own assets from anyway: triple Arsenal, triple Chelsea, one or two Palace, triple Liverpool, triple City, double Newcastle. That's the 15 man squad complete and potentially a full 15 players doubling, it will be a bigger double gameweek than it was last season.
So that's where I'm currently at, I know the doubles and blanks and chip strategy can be a bit mind boggling but I'll cover it all in depth in the coming weeks.
🧤 Goalkeeper
It's the north London derby with Arsenal facing Spurs away, Raya starts in goal. It's always an unpredictable fixture, every game is a must win with just a 4 point lead at the top of the table and Arsenal still need to play City away.
🛡️ Defenders
In defence it's O'Reilly, Gabriel and Van Dijk.
I've got a massive headache in defence this week. Gabriel is a definite starter, but then I've got to choose between 2 of O'Reilly, Van Dijk, Mukiele and Andersen.
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Can I really bench O'Reilly playing out of position as an 8? He's playing home again, and Newcastle are having to play midweek in the Champions League. Newcastle have never won a game without Bruno G in the league since he joined, 5 draws, 5 losses. The last 4 league meetings at the Etihad have been, a 4 - 0 loss, 1 - 0 loss, 2 - 0 loss, 5 - 0 loss. No goals over the last 4.
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Can I really bench Van Dijk after a 17 pointer? He's got the joint best clean sheet odds with O'Reilly as well, both on 32%. Andersen and Mukiele are both on 28% though, Andersen's better for defcon, Mukiele's have worsened since moving to right back as expected. No Xhaka is a small factor to consider too. This one really could go either way.
⚽ Midfielders
So in midfield it's Rogers, Mbeumo, Bruno, Rice and Enzo.
I am still yet to get a return from Rogers this season, GW1 to 5 he blanked in 5 straight games, then after coming back in for Brighton home last match he blanked again and got booked. He's absolutely class but I'm timing it terribly with his points, when I sold after those 5 blanks at the start of the season he started returning, but there's only so long you can hold a player that's blanking. He's a 6 gameweek commitment, will be holding all the way until GW31, there are still some good fixtures in there: Leeds home, Wolves away, West Ham home in 31.
Man Utd are enjoying a good run of form, 4 wins and a draw in their last 5. Bruno and Mbeumo are also planned holds until 31 then wildcard, Bruno could stay in even if he doesn't double in GW33, Mbeumo less likely. Bruno has only blanked once in his last 5 league meetings vs Everton, and that was this season when he was playing deeper CM, he'd returned in 4 straight games before that in CAM with 2 goals 3 assists in 4.
There's the option to sell Rice this week, I'm looking at Dango and Rayan who have good fixtures, but I'd rather give it another week before deciding which way. Last week in the team for him and Enzo though in all likelihood unless an injury or something interrupts the plans. After this gameweek Arsenal play Chelsea so it's a fixture swing that's worth looking at.
🎯 Forwards
Up front it's Haaland and Thiago.
Waiting for further news on Haaland, as it stands assuming he's fit for GW27 he's my captain. He's actually got a poor record vs Howe's Newcastle, he hasn't scored in their last 7 meetings in all competitions, but Newcastle have got Schar, Livramento, Bruno G, Joelinton all out injured, and as I said earlier Newcastle have to play Qarabag away this week before GW27 which won't do them any favours with possible fatigue and the 5 or so hour flight there and back.
Thiago has run so hot and cold this season, but you don't want to miss his points when he's on it so I'm glad to have him with those upcoming fixtures until GW31 before the wildcard. 5 double digit returns this season which is joint third most, Haaland has 8, the two Brunos have 7.
🪑 Bench + Transfer Plans
So the bench is Dubravka, Mukiele, Andersen and Mane.
Some serious potential for points on the bench, it's not worth risking the bench boost though going back to the DGW analysis earlier.
1 free transfer, what's the plan if Haaland's out? In that scenario I'd still roll, Mukiele is perfectly fine to start. If it was a serious injury for Haaland, which it really doesn't sound like it is then Ekitike would come in. It would be tempting to make that move even if Haaland is only out for 1 game, but after GW27 he has Leeds away, Forest home, West Ham away where he'd probably be my captain every week.
So with that all in mind the plan is to roll the transfer. As I say in GW28 we've got Arsenal vs Chelsea, which could be good timing to sell Rice and Enzo. I'm considering Rice to Wirtz, and Enzo to Dango in GW28. With 0.1m spare in the bank for that currently so it's tight, failing that Rayan is 5.5m from Bournemouth and has looked really sharp.
Wirtz has West Ham home, Wolves away, Spurs home, Brighton away. Dango has Burnley and Bournemouth away, Wolves home, Leeds away. Those 2 moves look really good.
Thanks for reading. See you soon for the next one.
Please note my team and plans aren’t locked in and can change!