Welcome back for another article.
Who are the best players to buy? Let's run through all the best players in the game right now. Tuesday night Arsenal play Chelsea in the league cup, then Man City play Newcastle on Wednesday after which point DGW26 and BGW31 will be finalised. Only Arsenal, Wolves, Chelsea and Everton can double in GW26.
Man City can't because Palace already have a game on midweek in GW26 so if City knock Newcastle out their double will come later, probably GW33.
So in the interim, the projected points account for the double gameweeks by using probabilities, Arsenal are 90% likely to double given they're a goal up and play home. So Raya's projections are absolutely miles ahead of anyone else over the next 5, in a nutshell currently 5.9 fixtures included in his next 5.
4.5 points this week with a home fixture to Sunderland as well, which will have some of the best clean sheet odds we've seen all season, currently at 58%. You know what happens next...
🧤 Goalkeepers
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No GK has returned more points than Kelleher across the last 8 GWs: he's scored 50 points, 7 bonus points, and 4 clean sheets.
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Last gameweek his third double digit return of the season, however it's not a good entry point despite the form, he now has Newcastle away followed by Arsenal home.
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If I were wildcarding this week it would be Raya in goal. The best Arsenal triple up could genuinely be just triple defence. It worked better than double defence plus Rice or Saka last week anyway. Though if I was to pick a triple up it would still be double defence and one midfielder.
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Sanchez's next 3 fixtures are incredible, Wolves away, Burnley and Leeds home though looking at the next 5 Pickford is top after Raya, albeit he is .7m more than Sanchez so that's a consideration.
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He is the top scoring keeper and still the only one on 100+ point this season. Everton's next 5 are Fulham, Bournemouth, Man Utd, Newcastle, Burnley.
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Dubravka has West Ham home next gameweek, so if you've got Roefs as your other keeper it's a rare opportunity to use Dubravka given how unlikely it is for Roefs to score well at the Emirates.
🛡️ Defenders
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Defenders next, and it's Arsenal's backline topping the table, Gabriel, Timber, Saliba, Calafiori.
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If Arsenal get the double gameweek and you're not tripled up then that is your #1 priority over the next 2 gameweeks and it's a great week to buy 1 week before the double if it happens when they're top of the clean sheet odds, with a 58% chance.
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Beyond Arsenal, Andersen plays Everton home and is on 4.6 projected points, 10.5 defcons per 90 for Andersen places him fourth in the league among defenders, after Senesi, Tarkowski and Richards.
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Mavropanos is on the table since they've got Burnley but I wouldn't buy West Ham defence whatever you do. Hall is on 4.2 points, Chalobah 4.0.
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Thiaw could actually be the better alternative to Hall and cheaper, he's done great for defcons, a lot more reliably then Hall's goal involvements, on more points as well.
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The tricky thing with defenders right now is which are even worth it beyond Arsenal, Man City have some fantastic fixtures coming up so Guehi and Nunes look great but they are likely to blank in GW31 so it's a booked in transfer back out and that needs to be managed carefully.
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Same with Palace who would blank with them, though they have Brighton, Burnley, Leeds next.
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My recommendation is to save a chip in BGW31, it will be easy enough to navigate without needing to free hit. There will be better double gameweeks or a blank gameweek to use chips in most likely.
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Although not on the table this week given he has Man City, only Arsenal defenders have more projected points over the next 5 than Van Dijk, they've got a great run after City so I'm definitely keeping hold.
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Then it's Tarkowski who also doesn't make the table this week but worth consideration for 5.8m, 20.1 points for the next 5.
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A surprise benching for Collins last gameweek who is someone I'd been looking at, due to Brentford's fixtures in a couple weeks time. They kept a clean sheet and won a man down as well so that's one to monitor, 2 weeks to see what Andrews does vs Newcastle and Arsenal anyway, before easier games vs Brighton, Burnley, Bournemouth, Wolves, Leeds.
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Cash is sitting on 18.5 points for the next, he's in consideration for my team as an O'Reilly replacement, the fixtures are there however they've been dreadfully unlucky with so many injuries which won't help their clean sheet chances at all.
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An 8 pointer for Senesi last game with a clean sheet and defcon, no defender has a higher defcon tally than him and he's on 19.1 points for the next 5, another great option for the same price as Cash. Senesi is a defcon pick, Cash is a goal involvement pick basically. They're dead even for the next 5 gameweek projections.
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Leeds have got Forest home so Rodon looks a fantastic enabler if you need one for 3.9m this week, always a decent chance of defcon for a lower table CB.
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Hill is the other one, also 3.9m and has started 6 in a row. Solid defensively and with excellent passing range, he's taken his chance to impress - which has made Andoni Iraola “very happy”.