Welcome back for another article.
43 points and a very small green arrow to 53k last gameweek, in what played out as a chaotic week following benchings for Foden, Ekitike, Haaland and blanks for all the popular captains. A Saka return would've been absolutely huge following the Haaland blank but it wasn't to be, it was between him and Thiago for me and both ended up blanking anyway.
The two transfers were both positives though, Gakpo and Enzo to Bruno and Enzo which gained 10 points off the bat. You might recall from the team selection article I was already aiming for Foden to Enzo though so the leak actually played massively against me, would've been a fantastic call but that's alright, that's how it goes. O'Reilly started and kept a clean sheet, no-one else at the back did but a Van Dijk goal and defcon meant a 9 pointer. I'd said last week that I'm happy to just keep hold of him, though really hope to see Liverpool sign a CB before the window closes as they're currently down to just Van Dijk with Konate and Gomez out. Very likely to just hold Van Dijk through long term. Chalobah looks great but it's a transfer I don't have room for and O'Reilly out is a bigger priority.
All those weeks rolling has helped, I know it's not as fun hearing it's another roll for the third week in a row but the value of free transfers cannot be understated. 10 points gained last gameweek immediately, and I'm looking to spend another 2 this week. Have played far from perfect though, Gakpo was a stupid punt and a transfer could've been saved going straight to Enzo but it felt worth a go at the time given he was under half a percent owned at my rank and had Burnley home.
🧤 Goalkeeper
Raya faces Leeds away, and it's not a good time to be Leeds facing an Arsenal side with a point to prove. Still 4 points clear but there is no more room for poor performances, 2 draws and a loss in the last 3 and the gap reduced at the top, with Arsenal still needing to play Man City away.
If Arsenal are to double in GW26 we should expect a provisional announcement about a week today, before the GW25 deadline. It requires Arsenal to knock Chelsea out of the league cup semi-finals, they're currently leading after the first tie and play at the Emirates so it's about 90% likely. The only thing is it means Arsenal and Wolves blank in GW31, so I'm also thinking I'll be down to my backup keeper. Dubravka has Fulham away so in my case it's probably not worth a transfer, will just use Dubravka that week. 🧤
🛡️ Defenders
In defence it's Gabriel, Van Dijk and Mukiele.
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The bookies odds have Arsenal top with a 44% chance of a clean sheet, Sunderland second on 42%, then Chelsea and Man Utd joint third.
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Timber and Saliba both not in Arsenal's midweek squad in the Champions League, however this is almost certainly just to give them a rest since they've already progressed, expecting both to start with Gabriel vs Leeds. The focus is the league over the next week not CL. 🛡️
The Mukiele vs Alderete swing in GW6 has been crazy, it wasn't complete guesswork, Mukiele was posting better defcon and attacking numbers but was very little in it and he's been so good. It's his last start in the team for a few weeks, Sunderland have Arsenal and Liverpool after Burnley, then he'll probably come back in for Fulham home in GW27.
Really hope one of Gomez or Konate is back in time for GW24 following both missing CL midweek, Newcastle is a tough game and Bruno G is back as well. I could start O'Reilly instead, they've got about the same clean sheet odds though, Liverpool only 1% behind but Van Dijk has a significantly better chance of defcon plus is nailed whereas you never know what Pep will do. My gut feeling is O'Reilly starts again but perhaps CL will help give us an idea.
⚽ Midfielders
In midfield it's Bruno, Le Fee, Saka and Enzo.
Last time you'll see Le Fee's face in the team for a while. The only thing about going double Sunderland is I'm a bit snookered for the two gameweeks that follow since I've also got Thiago who has a couple bad fixtures, particularly Arsenal in GW25 so I might be forced into starting Le Fee depending on free transfers. ⚽
Going Bruno captain this week, I'm expecting a Haaland start so it's really close. Bruno has created 7 big chances over the last 6 gameweeks, top in the league, next most is 5. On top of that Bruno's played 3 games in the last 6, crazy numbers. Man Utd have so much momentum, playing some fantastic football under Carrick, it's a home fixture and the atmosphere is going to be absolutely bouncing at Old Trafford.
Enzo has registered 3.68 xGI over the last 6 gameweeks, which ranks fifth in the league and now enters the greatest fixture run of any team all season:
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West Ham (H)
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Wolves (A)
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Leeds (H)
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Burnley (H)
My only concern with such good fixtures is they could be an opportunity for Rosenior to rotate a few players due to Champions League, League Cup and FA Cup to juggle. Enzo looks the best Chelsea attacker though and definitely wouldn't let it put you off buying. Joao Pedro feels a little bit riskier but honestly it might not matter if he gets 3 starts in the next 4.
Was chatting to Tom yesterday, it's a weird season with the lack of strong template picks that you can trust, or set & forget. This was my team this same gameweek last season, Raya, Trent, Bruno, Salah, Palmer, Semenyo, Mbeumo, Wissa, Isak were just such easy picks and easy holds.
Funnily it was actually a double gameweek if you recall because the Merseyside derby got postponed, and had the assistant manager chip active on Slot. I even had Munoz and Strand Larsen on the bench. Then compare to this season, Saka, Enzo, Palmer, Salah aren't long term holds or set & forgets.
🎯 Forwards
So up front it's Haaland, Thiago and Ekitike.
Spurs have got lots of players out injured for their CL game, Porro, Van de Ven, Davies, Bentancur, Bergvall, Maddison, Kudus, Kulusevski, Richarlison and I do think Haaland is still a very good captain choice, playing with a point to prove against a weak Spurs side underperforming. 🎯
Projected goals for GW24:
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Chelsea: 2.3
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Man City: 2.1
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Man Utd: 2.0
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Liverpool, Arsenal, Brighton, Villa, Sunderland, Bournemouth.
Looking at selling Ekitike this week, he's been another disaster transfer this season: home to Leeds, home to Wolves, home to Burnley, Bournemouth away and he's got 1 assist over those games. Plus missed Fulham and Arsenal injured. He's averaged 2.5 points per game excluding those he missed completely. I don't mind the idea of keeping him, they do have some decent fixtures coming up but I'm looking at selling.
🪑## Bench + Transfer Plans
On the bench it's Dubravka, O'Reilly, Andersen and Ba.
Got 2 free transfers. Some options are Ekitike to Watkins, since Villa have great fixtures I think he's a really strong choice, not expecting Abraham to impact his minutes much. However they've got McGinn and Tielemans out for around 6 weeks, Kamara out for the season. Could depend massively on how Douglas Luiz looks back at Villa. 🪑
Another option is Ekitike to Joao Pedro, this feels really strong as well even if he doesn't start in 1 of the next 4.
The two moves I'm looking to make are Ekitike to Mane, and Ba to Mbeumo.
My worry with Mbeumo before was Cunha coming on for him the past 2 games, you don't want an 8.3m asset going off at 70 minutes every week. However, it's since been reported that Dorgu will be out for around 10 weeks after injuring his hamstring vs Arsenal. In theory this should bump his minutes up moving forward. 🩹
I'm still making a decision on Mane vs Kroupi. Mane is 4.5m, Kroupi is 4.6m. Kroupi's playing for a better team, slight chance of penalties but getting worse minutes and doesn't have a potential DGW26, which is likely for Mane. Don't get me wrong it's a pretty shocking double for Wolves, Forest away and Arsenal home. However if you recall I was saying that's the week my double Sunderland has Liverpool and Thiago has Arsenal, so he could actually be very handy that week.
He would leave me a player lighter in BGW31 though where I don't plan to use a chip. So it would be Raya, Gabriel, Saka and also O'Reilly and Haaland are almost certain to blank. They are the other league cup semi-final and leading 2 - 0 vs Newcastle after the first leg.
In GW25 I'm looking at O'Reilly to Thiaw potentially. Newcastle are the second best defence for xGC and have some fairly good fixtures from GW25 to cover my Sunderland assets with their bad 2 fixtures, and Newcastle have Sunderland home in GW31.
So if I sell O'Reilly one way or the other I'd be down to Gabriel, Saka, Haaland, Mane blanking in GW31. I would sell one or two of those that week to bring it down to 2 blanking. Fulham have Burnley home in GW31 so that could be Saka and Mane to Wilson and Raul Jimenez with 2.5m leftover for example. So that's the rough plan. Mane vs Kroupi to be confirmed still.
Anyway, rambling now. Thanks for reading. See you soon for the next one.