Welcome back for another article.
Who are the best players to buy for GW24? As always we'll break it down nice and simple by position.
🧤 Goalkeepers
Goalkeepers first and there's a few fixtures that look good for clean sheets. Raya is top this week with Arsenal away to Leeds and aiming to bounce back from a horrific weekend, Roefs have Burnley home, Lammens has Fulham home, Verbruggen has Everton home.
Although Roefs is second on the table this week I'd avoid, he's got Arsenal away, Liverpool home and Bournemouth away in his next 5 gameweeks, plus Xhaka missed the last game for them.
So Raya remains firmly top for the next 5 gameweeks, however interestingly second top over that span is Lammens. Carrick has blown away everyone's expectations with wins over Man City and Arsenal in his first two games, and he's given fans what they wanted, Mainoo started, Bruno as a 10, a back 4. They've been unbelievable and the next 5 are Fulham home, Spurs home, West Ham away, Everton away, Palace home.
These next games are crucial and they need to now sustain that form against teams which will be a different kind of challenge with a lower block. He could be one to strongly consider on a wildcard, the only caveat with Raya is he's very likely to blank in GW31, so if you have Raya then you have about a 90% chance of needing your backup keeper in BGW31, depending on if Arsenal knock Chelsea out in the league cup semi's. Wolves would be the other team that blank with him. Man City and Palace are also likely to blank in GW31.
As a refresher, Arsenal's blank with Wolves has high potential to move to GW26, we'd expect an announcement on that fairly soon if that's what the Premier League are planning to do. Man City and Palace's blank wouldn't be able to move to GW26 because of Palace's Europa Conference League play offs clashing.
The GW31 postponements will be confirmed in the midweek before the GW25 deadline, but if they are planning a DGW26 we'll get a provisional announcement earlier than that within the next week. You'll know straight away if there's a double.
🛡️ Defenders
Defenders next, it's basically just Arsenal and Sunderland this week on the GW24 projections though I've got a lot of defenders to discuss. The table this week is Gabriel, Mukiele, Timber, Alderete, Reinildo, Saliba, Van Hecke, Ballard.
So Roefs we were saying is an avoid, however a Sunderland defender looks fine if you're able to bench them in GW25 and 26. Of the top 20 scoring defenders he is the cheapest of them all, and he's the 7th top scoring defender in the game. 1 goal and 4 assists, and despite the goal involvements he's managed to average 9.9 defcons per 90 as well, which ranks 9th among all defenders, so he's just been an all round beast. His assist last gameweek mean he's returned in 8 consecutive games, if you include def con as a return. So although he's risen a lot to 4.5m, in the grand scheme that's still cheap.
One defender I'm looking at, as an O'Reilly replacement is Thiaw. In my case I already own Mukiele but don't have that cover in place for GW25 and 26, which is when Newcastle have Brentford home and Spurs away.
Check this out, over the season Newcastle are the second best team for expected goals conceded with 25.19. Arsenal top with 16.27. Second fewest big chances conceded as well. So Thiaw, and Hall look fantastic long term picks.
Cash is another one, who is perfect for this week at 4.8m with Brentford home. Villa's long term fixtures are very solid, he's very attacking and will definitely score a goal or two over that run.
Chalobah doesn't quite make the table with 4.0 projected points, very slightly but not significantly reduced expected minutes on FPL Review just in case he misses one of the next 5 given they are also technically fixtures he could be rested in, when you consider the fact that they've got Champions League, League Cup and FA Cup in the next few weeks sandwiched between those green fixtures. He looks great though all things considered, 16.9 points for the next 5.
Munoz was back in the Palace team last gameweek, had a couple of threatening moments, very pricey at 5.8m but we know how high his upside is, in the first 14 gameweeks before his injury he had 3 goals 3 assists. 6 involvements in 14 is crazy numbers for a defender. Huge differential now that his ownership has plummeted.
The last one to talk about is Dorgu. That's 2 goals in 2 games playing out of position, so is he essential? I'd argue definitely not, he went off with a potential injury, though Carrick said hopefully it's just cramp, though besides that I'm not convinced Dorgu starts every game, he was potentially better suited for their last two opponents whereas Cunha could come in for some of their "easier" upcoming games.
⚽ Midfielders
On that subject let's talk midfielders. If you caught my transfer plans article Mbeumo is someone I'm strongly considering. If the theory holds and Cunha starts some of these upcoming games then Mbeumo's minutes could get a small boost. 2 goals in 2 games since returning from AFCON, he's on the table this week with Fulham home first. Over the next 5 gameweeks he's among the best in the league even.
It's Bruno top of the table, he's assisted in 3 straight games since returning from injury and if you don't have him then he's got to be number 1 priority this week.
Rosenior said Palmer had a thigh issue and just barely missed out on making last gameweek, and expected back for Napoli midweek therefore. He's just way too risky for that price when he's very blatantly got an ongoing issue, maybe he's recovered from the groin injury and now it's his thigh, though his groin was heavily strapped up after their game in GW22.
Enzo just makes far more sense for almost 3m cheaper, took the penalty with no Palmer last match. It's really just a 4 gameweek purchase, West Ham, Wolves, Leeds and Burnley then Arsenal, Villa Newcastle which you sell before. If you can't get to Enzo this week then GW25 is fine too, even GW26 works for 2 gameweeks given they're both home to Leeds and Burnley.
I'd need to see a lot more from Salah before entertaining the idea of Haaland to Salah, despite the benching last match. Haaland won't stay benched and probably starts again in GW24 if I had to guess.
Le Fee pops up on the table this week with 4.7 points. If I were buying a cheap enabler this week it would actually be Dewsbury-Hall who is back from injury and the same price, he had 7 goal involvements in the first 14 starts before his injury, or excluding his 15th start where he made it to 15 minutes before having to go off. A goal involvement on average every other game is crazy at 4.9m. Not that that will necessarily continue but what more can you ask for for under 5m. In past seasons we'd snatch a 2 pointer from a 4.5m mid out your hand but this season really is the season of cheap gems. Ndiaye is the other one from Everton who looks a great pick for 6.2m given his attacking role and pen duties.
🎯 Forwards
On to the forwards. What do we do with Ekitike? What do we do with Haaland?
There is no way Haaland stays benched despite the 2 - 0 win over Wolves, so in my eyes he's a definite hold. Almost certainly starts against Spurs which would put him on 6.1 projected points, therefore Bruno's 6.8 places him top in the league for GW24.
It's a big call on captaincy given Haaland will still be extremely popular and a rank killer if he starts scoring again. Evanilson is second on 5.0 points, 3 goals in his last 4 games with a very good long term fixture run.
If he carries on with his form there's not a single fixture in the next 8 you'd want to bench him. For 7m he's worth looking at, on a wildcard a Haaland - Evanilson - Thiago front 3 looks nicely balanced without too much money invested up front.
However Watkins has been giving us a lot to think about given his consistency, over the last 10 gameweeks he's blanked 3 times. The projected points have Watkins ahead of Evanilson but it boils down to what that 1.8m can do you. That could be a 3.8m defender to a Newcastle or Chelsea defender. Or a Bruno G to Mbeumo etc. Abraham could cause some slightly early subs for Watkins but I wouldn't rule him out as a good pick on that alone.
There is a case for sticking with Ekitike, Newcastle home isn't a bad fixture, particularly if Bruno G misses out again. Joao Pedro has scored in two straight games, is he an option again? Going back to that earlier point, the only risk with him is that Chelsea are juggling 4 competitions and they're sandwiched in between those upcoming green fixtures, there's maybe a 50% chance Delap comes in for one of the next 4 if I had to guess. 3 starts in 4 could be more than enough though.
Brentford are entering a rough few fixtures, Villa away, Newcastle away, Arsenal home. I'm likely to just keep hold of Thiago because coming out of those 3 they have fantastic fixtures, and therefore right now I can't justify a transfer out and back in, though if you're sitting on a team you're happy with and on 3+ transfers then why not, or likewise on a wildcard you could leave him out for 3 gameweeks then buy.