Welcome back for another article.
42 points all out in a very strange gameweek, a small green arrow to 54K. Sitting on 3 free transfers. You might recall the 2 moves last week were Gabriel and Gakpo in. One of those moves went fine as Gabriel ended on 8 points to Timber's 3, but to come away with 6 points between Van Dijk, Gakpo and Ekitike home to Burnley is unbelievable. They're the worst team for xGC and one of the worst for xG. Gakpo did of course win a penalty which Szoboszlai smacked off the bar to deny the assist points. That's -52 points from missed pens this season between goal and assist points.
Mukiele assisting Le Fee was easily the highlight of the gameweek—there's nothing better than when two players in your team combine for a goal. Mukiele also hitting defcon and got booked, so a 6 pointer despite no clean sheet and getting a booking. Saka benched, Foden off at half time, captain Haaland blank. All things considered, very fortunate to get a green with 7 out of 11 players blanking. My entire team actually played on Saturday, so it was a strange gameweek where I was all done by Saturday night. Was looking to buy Tavernier very soon; a goal and an assist across his last 2 after scoring from the penalty spot Monday night, though he went off with a hamstring injury so will have to change plans accordingly.
Let's go through the team for GW23 and transfer plans.
🧤 Goalkeepers
In goal it's Arsenal vs a new look Man Utd team, who will be high on confidence after dominant winners of the Manchester derby, out of all cups as well so Man Utd are a team I'm definitely looking to reinvest in with a couple of players, Bruno at a minimum. Arsenal winners midweek in the Champions league winning 3 - 1 away vs Inter. Arsenal have won seven successive Champions League games for the first time in their history.
🛡️ Defenders
In defence it's Andersen, Gabriel and Van Dijk.
Gabriel got a rest in that midweek game which was good to see, this was how they lined up: Timber started, Mosquera and Saliba was the CB pairing. Saka started and played 90 though not concerned by that ahead of GW23. The clean sheet odds for GW23 have Man City top on 46%, then Arsenal second with 38%, Spurs third, Brentford fourth, then Chelsea, Everton, Newcastle.
Got a tough call to make. Do I play O'Reilly, considering he's a rotation risk and Man City's shocking form, but with the best clean sheet odds if he starts, or go with Andersen?
Andersen has Brighton home but just a 24% chance of a clean sheet, always a good chance at defcon points with him though. He's averaging 10.85 defcons per 90 this season, a 62% success rate which is third best in the league. It's so hard to get a read on what Pep will do, bordering on impossible. Ait-Nouri is facing his old club, though if it's to be Guehi's debut maybe Pep will value that English connection for the first match in the team down the left side. It's not impossible for both Ait-Nouri and O'Reilly to start, since O'Reilly can play in midfield, Ait-Nouri can play right back in a pinch. All depends on Nunes though who wasn't in the traveling squad midweek in CL.
O'Reilly and Cherki are just about the only two players that weren't terrible midweek as well, so maybe he has a chance, especially after a rest last gameweek. It's not like it's 3 starts in a week. Man City are just becoming such a headache and bad form so I'm looking to get rid of them soon besides Haaland.
Liverpool are the best team in the league for xGC over the last 6, though they've got some rough fixtures ahead before they get easier again. Given the good underlying numbers I'm actually inclined to keep Van Dijk and focus transfers elsewhere right now. There's a lot of issues that kind of need fixing before him: O'Reilly, Foden, Ekitike, Gakpo, Ba. In that context I just think keeping a nailed CB in one of the best defences isn't the end of the world and it's not like there's other must-have defenders I'm missing out on. Anyone out there still own Van Dijk as well? What's your plan?
⚽ Midfielders
So in midfield it's Gakpo, Foden, Saka and Le Fee.
It's the last week in the team for Gakpo and Foden. With hindsight I should've just gone straight to Enzo from Cunha who got the assist, albeit a fortunate one blocking a pass which ended up an assist for a goal. Burnley home just felt like an opportunity to attack and in fairness it was again one kick of the ball that caused the blank, Szoboszlai missing the pen. I remember a lot of you said "don't do it" when I said I was looking at Gakpo—should've listened to you! He's not even nailed on to start in GW23 given Liverpool play midweek in CL. At the time of recording they haven't played yet so I'll be looking at how they line up.
So I didn't expect to have this thought, but do I even keep Foden for Wolves home? Doku and Semenyo got a rest. Semenyo definitely starts vs Wolves and assuming Doku does too then does he really start both Foden and Cherki as well? It's not impossible but I really don't like the doubt. Wolves are the fourth best defence for xGC over the last 6 as well so they've improved a lot recently. Foden owners—are you keeping for one more game?
Saka was benched last gameweek, played 90 against Inter however considering the benching and the Tuesday to Saturday turnaround there is absolutely no doubt for me that he starts, so there's no way I'm selling him before Man Utd home, plus Leeds, Sunderland, Brentford and the North London derby after.
Just a couple more games in the starting 11 for Le Fee who has been such a fun pick at 1% ownership; he was one missed penalty from returning in 4 straight games. West Ham away next; this is an absolutely huge game for West Ham who have not given up yet—they're 5 points from safety after beating Spurs last gameweek.
🎯 Forwards
Up front it's Thiago, Haaland and Ekitike.
Captaincy is kind of tricky this week. Haaland has failed to score an open play goal for 8 consecutive games now. They've only won 2 of their last 7 games in all comps, haven't won any of their last 4 league games. I've got Saka vice captain and I think despite everything I'm likely to stick with Haaland. It's not out of the question for Pep to really shake things up and bench him for Marmoush. Are any of you looking elsewhere with captaincy?
I'm almost certainly selling one of Thiago or Ekitike in GW24 and right now Ekitike is looking likeliest. Still think he could be a good FPL asset when the fixtures become more favourable again. He's blanked in his last 2 league games, though between those two league games he didn't play so it feels worse than it is.
Man City are top for projected goals this week on 2.8, Arsenal second with 2.0, Liverpool and Newcastle 1.9, Chelsea 1.7, Brentford 1.6. So it's not the week to sell them just yet.
Bench and Transfer Strategy
On the bench it's Dubravka, Mukiele, O'Reilly and Ba.
I have 3 free transfers. There is a temptation to just remove the rotation risk from my team and sell Foden for Enzo. He's blanked for 6 games in a row now and fans are calling for him to be dropped. He did come off early in CL but wasn't having a great game. If there's any team news on Gakpo not starting then I'll sell him for Enzo, otherwise the plan is to roll currently.
Need to really sit on the Foden to Enzo call a bit longer. He's started every game since GW4 so he's been nailed but it somehow feels like he could be due a benching soon especially now Semenyo has been added to the squad.
So if I theoretically roll I'd be on 4 free transfers in GW24. I am looking at Foden to Bruno, Gakpo to Enzo and possibly Ekitike to Watkins. Obviously if I were to buy Enzo this week it makes no difference, it ends up the same team in GW24 after transfer. The other thing I'm looking at is Ekitike to Kroupi and Ba to Mbeumo instead.
That requires 1 additional transfer, but it fixes Ba who is a dead spot in my team, and Kroupi comes in who could actually benefit from Tavernier's injury in terms of minutes. Mbeumo played up top vs Man City and had a great game, took his chance brilliantly and Utd have really missed him. I quite like the idea of double Man Utd mid from GW24.
See you soon for the next one.
Please note my team and plans aren’t locked in and can change!