Welcome back for another article.
42 points all out in a very strange gameweek, a small green arrow to 54K. Sitting on 3 free transfers. You might recall the 2 moves last week were Gabriel and Gakpo in. One of those moves went fine as Gabriel ended on 8 points to Timber's 3, but to come away with 6 points between Van Dijk, Gakpo and Ekitike home to Burnley is unbelievable. They're the worst team for xGC and one of the worst for xG. Gakpo did of course win a penalty which Szoboszlai smacked off the bar to deny the assist points. That's -52 points from missed pens this season between goal and assist points.
Mukiele assisting Le Fee was easily the highlight of the gameweek—there's nothing better than when two players in your team combine for a goal. Mukiele also hitting defcon and got booked, so a 6 pointer despite no clean sheet and getting a booking. Saka benched, Foden off at half time, captain Haaland blank. All things considered, very fortunate to get a green with 7 out of 11 players blanking. My entire team actually played on Saturday, so it was a strange gameweek where I was all done by Saturday night. Was looking to buy Tavernier very soon; a goal and an assist across his last 2 after scoring from the penalty spot Monday night, though he went off with a hamstring injury so will have to change plans accordingly.
Let's go through the team for GW23 and transfer plans.
🧤 Goalkeepers
In goal it's Arsenal vs a new look Man Utd team, who will be high on confidence after dominant winners of the Manchester derby, out of all cups as well so Man Utd are a team I'm definitely looking to reinvest in with a couple of players, Bruno at a minimum. Arsenal winners midweek in the Champions league winning 3 - 1 away vs Inter. Arsenal have won seven successive Champions League games for the first time in their history.
🛡️ Defenders
In defence it's Andersen, Gabriel and Van Dijk.
Gabriel got a rest in that midweek game which was good to see, this was how they lined up: Timber started, Mosquera and Saliba was the CB pairing. Saka started and played 90 though not concerned by that ahead of GW23. The clean sheet odds for GW23 have Man City top on 46%, then Arsenal second with 38%, Spurs third, Brentford fourth, then Chelsea, Everton, Newcastle.
Got a tough call to make. Do I play O'Reilly, considering he's a rotation risk and Man City's shocking form, but with the best clean sheet odds if he starts, or go with Andersen?
Andersen has Brighton home but just a 24% chance of a clean sheet, always a good chance at defcon points with him though. He's averaging 10.85 defcons per 90 this season, a 62% success rate which is third best in the league. It's so hard to get a read on what Pep will do, bordering on impossible. Ait-Nouri is facing his old club, though if it's to be Guehi's debut maybe Pep will value that English connection for the first match in the team down the left side. It's not impossible for both Ait-Nouri and O'Reilly to start, since O'Reilly can play in midfield, Ait-Nouri can play right back in a pinch. All depends on Nunes though who wasn't in the traveling squad midweek in CL.
O'Reilly and Cherki are just about the only two players that weren't terrible midweek as well, so maybe he has a chance, especially after a rest last gameweek. It's not like it's 3 starts in a week. Man City are just becoming such a headache and bad form so I'm looking to get rid of them soon besides Haaland.
Liverpool are the best team in the league for xGC over the last 6, though they've got some rough fixtures ahead before they get easier again. Given the good underlying numbers I'm actually inclined to keep Van Dijk and focus transfers elsewhere right now. There's a lot of issues that kind of need fixing before him: O'Reilly, Foden, Ekitike, Gakpo, Ba. In that context I just think keeping a nailed CB in one of the best defences isn't the end of the world and it's not like there's other must-have defenders I'm missing out on. Anyone out there still own Van Dijk as well? What's your plan?