Welcome back for another article! 👋
Who are the best players to buy for GW23? Let's break it down simple and easy by position looking at the best picks in the game for us from this week. Projection data courtesy of FPL Review as always. 📈
🧤 Goalkeepers
Pickford just became the first keeper to 100 points this season, securing 3 points for Everton with a very good performance at Villa Park:
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5 saves 🧤
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3 bonus points ✨
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10 pointer total
This is the thing with mid-table keepers; they generally score far fewer goals than the top teams and top defenses, therefore when their team keeps a clean sheet they are significantly more likely to get bonus. Raya has 4 bonus points all season, Donnarumma has 0, Pickford has 11. And to repeat a point made a few weeks ago, the mid-table keepers face significantly more shots but still have clean sheet potential as opposed to an Areola who faces too many shots and inevitably concedes usually.
Everton's next 5 don't look too bad either, with 3 home games in 5:
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Leeds (H)
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Brighton (A)
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Fulham (A)
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Bournemouth (H)
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Man Utd (H)
Donnarumma tops the keepers' projections for GW23 with Man City facing Wolves at home. Wolves have actually shown significant improvement recently, unbeaten in 5, and over the last 6 gameweeks they're the fourth best defense for xGC, though they have still struggled offensively; 6.38 xG ranks fourth worst in attack. 📉
Here's the defensive data:
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Liverpool are actually top for xGC, but only have 2 clean sheets in 6.
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Arsenal, Brentford, and Everton lead with 3 clean sheets.
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Burnley and West Ham remain a defense to target, sitting as the bottom two.
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Palace have significantly fallen off down to third worst, which lines up with what we're seeing in the headlines and transfer movement.
Something to consider if you've got a Palace defender or Henderson.
Sanchez just misses out on making the table. He could be worth the gamble given the unbelievable fixture run for Chelsea for only 4.9m: Palace, West Ham, Wolves, Leeds, Burnley. It's hardly a gamble to be honest, just in the sense of a new manager coming in and a very capable backup in Jorgensen.
🛡️ Defenders
Spurs have got Burnley away next, though I wouldn't recommend investing in the Spurs defense. On that defense table before, they were sixth in the league over the last 6 for xGC, but the next 5 have some really bad fixtures after Burnley, and they're just not a team inspiring confidence right now whatsoever, especially after the loss to West Ham. ❌
Tarkowski, however, is a fantastic option and he's the third top defender for projected points over the next 5, after Gabriel and Timber. A really strong entry point this week before Leeds home as well. He's absolutely immense; last season he had the biggest success rate with 56%, and this season he's hit defcon in 73% of the games, which is second most among defenders.
Defcon Leaders (per 90):
Mukiele has been unbelievable starting the season at 4m. Even when used at right back he's been able to secure defcon; he's my favorite of the Sunderland defenders, though Alderete is also great for .3m cheaper. Sunderland's next 5 are West Ham, Burnley, Arsenal, Liverpool, and Fulham. Basically, you just need a rotation for GW25 and 26 when they have Arsenal and Liverpool.
3 benchings in 4 games for O'Reilly in all competitions; he's definitely not a buy. I've got him myself and he's a "don't buy, don't sell" this week for me. Gotta play him in a fixture like Wolves home and hope for the best. 🤞 It wouldn't be surprising if Pep gives Ait-Nouri the start against his old team though. O'Reilly is definitely looking like a sell in the very near future; he has looked fatigued and made some costly mistakes recently. Nunes missed the Manchester derby with flu reportedly. 🤒
Don't forget there's European games on midweek. All the following teams will play before GW23, so the general advice is to hold on to those transfers before doing anything:
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Man City
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Arsenal
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Spurs
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Chelsea
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Liverpool
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Newcastle
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Villa
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Nottm Forest
Newcastle are home to Villa next. Hall just makes the table at the bottom for that. It does seem like CBs are the way to go this season; there's very few fullbacks that are worth looking at. Hall has the potential for assists, but for every assist he gets over the season, Thiaw might have hit defcon 3 times, which is the equivalent points of two assists. Defcons are so much more predictable and a reliable source of points.
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Hall: 2 assists for 6 points (11 starts)
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Thiaw: Defcon 7 times for 14 points (18 starts)
Cheap Enablers:
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Rodon (3.9m): Good for Everton (A) GW23, Forest (H) GW25, and Sunderland (H) GW29.
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Reinildo (3.8m): A starter with a great run including West Ham, Burnley, Fulham, Bournemouth, Leeds, and Brighton in his next 8.