Welcome back for another article. 📖
Happy new year everyone!
GW19 Review
40 points all out in a largely underwhelming gameweek. Clean sheets from Van Dijk and Timber almost made it a green, but a 1K red arrow takes me to 40K. Raya conceding in stoppage time was painful, as was O'Reilly coming off at 57 minutes as City went on to keep a clean sheet; 3 minutes separated a green from a red. 🛑
In fact, Mukiele and Le Fee doing well on the bench was also painful, though realistically I was never starting either against Man City. The weakest spot in the team was Andersen and Le Fee ended up with 2 more points. Mukiele was never close to the starting 11, but an 11 pointer from him is huge. He's the greatest 4m defender I've owned since Lundstram. He'll probably beat Lundstram's 144 points this season, though it's not a fair comparison with defcons included now. 📈
I was feeling relieved to have avoided a Cunha captaincy in the end as they drew 1 - 1 with Wolves, only for Haaland to have a bad game and blank himself. Just a load of blanks and, all things considered in a week like that, I'll take the almost grey arrow.
GW20 Team Selection
Let's get into the team for GW20 as the second half of the season begins now! ⚽
Goalkeepers
Raya plays Bournemouth away. We'll have to see if Semenyo makes their squad for this one given he seems destined to leave in the January window; hopefully he doesn't make it. Despite blanking 4 times in the last 5 and some tricky fixtures ahead, I've actually still got a lot of faith in him. I bought him at 5.5m as well, so I'm more reluctant to consider selling, and the only world where it could happen is for Gabriel at some point.
Defenders
The back 3 is Van Dijk, O'Reilly, and Timber. 🛡️
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Clean Sheet Odds: Brighton are top this week with a 40% chance home to Burnley. Arsenal are joint second with Spurs on 38%. Van Dijk is further down at 29% with Fulham away. I'd like to at a minimum get the Burnley home fixture in GW22 out of him before making a call on selling. 🗓️
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The O'Reilly Situation: Decisions to make after that early O'Reilly sub. Commentators said he was struggling a little bit; Ake had a great game and Gvardiol got a rest, so he feels a risk. However, I'm desperate to roll if I can. My gut feeling says things are going to get really tricky when Bruno's back, plus Chelsea's fixture swing in GW22 or GW24 to take advantage of. To really take advantage, some banked transfers are going to be needed.
- Arsenal Assets: Timber came off early too, and that will have been with a view to giving him some rest before GW20. It's great when it banks the clean sheet like it did for him last week before Arsenal conceded, but awful when it's pre-60 like O'Reilly.
Midfielders
In midfield it's Le Fee, Foden, Saka, and Cunha. 🏃♂
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Le Fee: Defcon for Le Fee last week and he's avoided that yellow card suspension. The threshold is 10 yellows for everyone now, so you won't get any yellow card tracker updates from me for a while. The two closest are Romero and Dunk with 7.
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Sunderland Assets: Sunderland drawing against Man City last night isn’t even surprising; they are such a disciplined, well-drilled team. Some incredible signings in the summer have made them look comfortable to stay up. The question is: do I start Mukiele over O'Reilly and go double Sunderland? I've missed last week's points—16 points the two of them got combined.
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Saka: Saka is vice captain for Bournemouth away. He's quietly gone about his business with just two blanks in his last 9 games. All he's lacking is those 1 goal 1 assist type games. More than happy to keep hold for now.
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Foden: Foden's purple patch is well and truly over, but what will we see in this one given Maresca has parted ways with Chelsea? It's their u21's coach who will be stepping up to manage Chelsea for GW20. Maresca reportedly resigned rather than was sacked, and I can't imagine the players are happy about it. Hopefully, this plays into City's hands as someone who owns no Chelsea assets and doubled in attack on City. Semenyo's arrival could actually put Foden at risk; Semenyo in will put Foden’s place in the starting XI in danger.
Forwards
Up front it's Ekitike, Thiago, and Haaland. 🎯
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Ekitike: Just one week where Ekitike outscores Wirtz is all I ask! Last gameweek it was just 1 point while Wirtz got the clean sheet.
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Thiago & Haaland: Given Everton's form, this won't be an easy one; Everton have 6 clean sheets in their last 9. I'm going Haaland captain despite the poor performance vs Sunderland. It should be a more open game and, as we said earlier, no Maresca, so it'll be Chelsea's u21 coach as interim manager. It's a huge game after dropping points and they trail Arsenal by 4 points now.
Bench
The bench is Dubravka, Mukiele, Andersen, and Ba.
Transfer Plans & Strategy
The one area that could need a change is O'Reilly. Does he start after that early sub last gameweek? I could do O'Reilly to Thiaw—Newcastle have Palace home, Leeds home, and Wolves away. Or I could play O'Reilly and hope for the best, or I could just play Mukiele away to Spurs. Mukiele is on 85 points now after the halfway mark. If he carries at the exact same pace, that's a 170 point season, which would make him by far the best 4m defender in FPL history. 🌟
My current thinking is I'll actually probably start Mukiele over O'Reilly and roll the transfer.
Possible future transfers:
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GW21: Roll again (4 free transfers).
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GW22: Cunha to Szoboszlai.
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GW24/25: Foden to Palmer, Ba to Bruno, Ekitike to Guiu.
This would leave me about 6.1m leftover for the Szoboszlai replacement. Tavernier has great fixtures from GW24, so maybe him for 5.6m. That would be a potential path to own Saka, Palmer, and Bruno anyway, which is very strong from GW24.
Please note my team and plans aren’t locked in and can change!