Welcome back for another article. 📖
Who are the best players to buy for GW19? Nearing the halfway mark of the season, still a long way to go. We're just a couple days away from the next deadline, so let's break it down nice and simple by position.
🧤 Goalkeepers
Goalkeepers first and looking at the fixtures there's a few with good clean sheet potential:
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Arsenal home to Villa - though that one is debatable.
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Man City have Sunderland away.
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Newcastle have Burnley away.
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Man Utd face Wolves home.
Raya is top of all keepers for projected points over the next 5, which is some food for thought if you were thinking of selling given Arsenal's next 5 do look tougher: Villa, Bournemouth, Liverpool, Forest, Man Utd.
It was a frustrating GW18 as the top defences conceded; no clean sheet for Arsenal, City, Liverpool. Man Utd managed one against Newcastle which was a surprise.
Feels like jury's still out on Lammens as an FPL pick for 5m; if he were 4.5m he'd be really tempting. I do have a stat which could surprise you: Since Lammens came in, Man Utd are fifth best in the league for expected goals conceded with 15.3 xGC. The four teams ahead of them are Arsenal, Man City, Palace and Liverpool. 🛡️
Some managers have had a lot of joy lately with the Verbruggen + Dubravka combination for about as cheap as keeper combos get at 4.4m and 4.1m. An 11 pointer for Dubravka last match, 11 for Verbruggen the week before.
Looking at the next 8 gameweeks keeper rotations, Brighton don't have the best rotation with Burnley now, West Ham have the best rotation, then Newcastle, Everton, and Forest. John has started 3 in a row for Forest now and is only 4m; if he continues playing he'll be a gem at that price and far better than Dubravka for 4m. Rotating keepers can backfire when you bench a keeper with a worse fixture who keeps an unexpected clean sheet with a ton of saves, but recent gameweeks have shown it can work very well too. I've got 9 points from my set and forget Raya over the last 2 games; Verbruggen and Dubravka owners got 22 points.
🛡️ Defenders
Moving on to defenders next. Dalot's hit a bit of a mad patch recently; only 1 of his last 5 games he's failed to get an attacking return, 1 goal 3 assists. Wolves, Leeds and Burnley his next 3; you can do a lot worse for 4.4m that's for sure, though after those three he has to be benched or sold—it's Man City and Arsenal following those 3 fixtures. 📈
Should also mention Dorgu. In his 38th game and with his 31st shot for the club, Patrick Dorgu has scored his first Manchester United goal in all competitions. Was a great strike on the volley and played out of position winger as well. He's also great for 4.1m.
Hall would be my top defender transfer target this week if you can afford him, a little pricey at 5.2m though he's fallen in price 3 times. Really attacking, takes some corners, and their next 4 are unbelievable fixtures:
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Burnley away
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Palace home
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Leeds home
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Wolves away
It's just a shame they've got so many injuries as this could still be a difficult spell for them with Livra, Botman, Trippier, Lascelles, Krafth all out so there's no depth. Miley is having to play right back. Hall is worth the .2m over Thiaw if you can afford.
What's going on with Arsenal defenders then? So Timber wasn't even in their squad last match; the rumours are that it's just precautionary. He did play the 90 vs Palace in the league cup and even took a pen; apparently it was something from that game. Difficult one to get a read on with Arteta unlikely to tell us anything; my best guess is he starts which would make him a hold. Calafiori pulled out in the warm up injured before the Brighton game; Hincapie started but Gabriel came back from injury and came on. So this could be the week to move Hincapie on if you have him. 🚑
Keane and Tarkowski had a fantastic game against Burnley, both getting a clean sheet, defcon and bonus. They have Forest away next, so the ideal time to buy could be GW20 or 21. From GW20 Everton have Brentford home, Wolves home, Villa away, Leeds home, Brighton away and so on. It's not bad to buy this week though; looking at projected clean sheets Everton are third after Arsenal and Man City over the next 6 gameweeks. Then it's Liverpool, Newcastle and Chelsea.
🏃 Midfielders
Midfielders next and for GW19 Cunha is so far ahead of everyone else he needs to be firmly in the conversation for captaincy. Wolves have lost every single game since drawing vs Brighton in GW7. Man Utd beat them 4 - 1 I think it was away just a few weeks ago. Are any of you going Cunha captain? It's always high risk high reward; some weeks it's been badly punished, others such as just last gameweek it worked for many. 🎯
Palmer is second this week, playing Bournemouth at Stamford Bridge. A 4 - 1 defeat away by Bournemouth; only Burnley have a worse xGC in away games. I'm aiming to buy around GW22 though going early this week might work if you have the room for it. Does he definitely start all games over this patch of 4 gameweeks in 11 days? My best guess is he doesn't. The next 5 gameweek projections suggest that the Cunha, Saka, Foden core midfield is still very strong and perhaps not worth deviating on for a while yet if you own all 3.
Szoboszlai returns from suspension, on penalties and has Leeds home, plus Burnley home a few weeks from now in GW22. He's a great option for only 6.6m, the cheapest mid on the table this week.
On his 17th appearance and with his 21st shot in the competition, Wirtz has scored his first ever Premier League goal for Liverpool. He makes the table as well with 4.9 points, same as Schade who became the fifth player to have a 20+ point gameweek after that hat trick against Bournemouth. He was on the table last gameweek as well and I wish I'd gone there! He bagged a hat trick last season too; he can be very explosive like that and there are still some decent fixtures ahead for him: Spurs home, Everton away, Sunderland home, Chelsea away, Forest home. Not too late to buy. 🎩
If you've got Minteh—as frustrating as recent matches have been I would keep hold. It's not the time to buy after a rest vs Arsenal and has West Ham and Burnley next. Those are two incredible fixtures right now; sell him in GW21 when Brighton play City away.
Last player to mention is Cherki. Since the start of November, Cherki has assisted more goals (7) than any other player in Europe's big-five leagues. He's been ticking along with the returns, 3 blanks in his last 9 games and ended up the best City asset last match with a 13 pointer and Foden and Haaland blanking. He's becoming increasingly difficult to ignore. There will be the odd game where he annoys you because he comes off at 60 or so minutes with a blank, or gets benched; for example GW13 and 14 he was benched both games in a row. Though with a player of his quality maybe it doesn't matter; those of you that have played FPL long enough will remember players like Mahrez who many were just happy to buy and accept there will be blanks and benchings but he was explosive enough that his average points over runs was good enough. I'm on a triple up with O'Reilly so will be sticking with that for now.
⚽ Forwards
Forwards next, Haaland is top with 6.6 points. Now to compare, Cunha was on 7.5 so that's a sizeable gap between the two, enough to strongly consider Cunha captain even. Ekitike the second best forward next gameweek and next 5. The single most bought player last gameweek only for Wirtz to outscore him, though he does still look an amazing option given some of the upcoming fixtures plus Isak out for months.
I wouldn't rush to buy Sesko or Mateta despite their ranking this week; they feel iffy for minutes right now. Very few forwards feel totally safe right now. Thiago with an assist last match, has to be a hold for now with those fixtures in mind we discussed when assessing Schade. Bowen is a hold for now too. West Ham have great fixtures and if anyone can turn things around for them it's him and he's still a top 5 scoring forward.