Welcome back for another article. 📖
A tough gameweek with no chips active while overall over 1.7 million were activated, can't complain too much with 79 points and a 4K red arrow to 20.8K. 📉 3 early transfers made already ahead of GW18, will run you through those shortly.
Almost a perfect sweep at the back, clean sheets from Raya, O'Reilly, Andersen and Timber with Van Dijk conceding to 10 man Spurs, which later ended up 9 man Spurs. Semenyo with a goal and maximum bonus, holding on to him a little longer when many sold has been a good call.
The big talking point was the Bruno injury though, we're yet to get something concrete on exactly how long he's out - tests will determine the extent but it seems like he could miss a month potentially, which is 5 or 6 gameweeks.
I was having a look back at my GW1 team, because I remember starting the season with him and he's got to be sold now, Dubravka and Andersen are the only surviving players from my GW1 team. What a throwback this is, Salah and Palmer - no Haaland. Double Spurs defence, Murillo. Oh yeah and Rogers! Who remembers Villa didn't score for their first 4 games, they finally scored in GW5 and I held Rogers and Watkins for all 5 gameweeks without a single return from them. Rogers finally showing what he's capable of lately with 3 braces in his last 6 games. 🔥
Goalkeeper
Raya plays Brighton home, 9 clean sheets is more than any keeper. 🧤 16 big chances conceded is 10 fewer than any other team, they're the only team with under 100 shots in the box conceded with 89, next lowest is Man City with 120.
Defence
In defence it's a back 3 this week, Van Dijk, O'Reilly, Timber. 🛡️
Good coverage on the clean sheet odds this week, Liverpool are top with a 48% chance home to Wolves, Arsenal 44% vs Brighton, Man City are fourth with 36%. Recording before Arsenal play Palace in the league cup where I'm hoping for lots of rotation, with the likes of Timber, Calafiori, Raya, Saka, Rice getting a rest.
Got a call to make between O'Reilly and Mukiele, since Mukiele is home to Leeds. The clean sheet odds are only 5% in favour of O'Reilly. I've benched quite a few Mukiele clean sheets, which I don't mind too much as I'd rather have that depth and bench points than not have it at all. O'Reilly is averaging an expected goal involvement every 383 minutes which is very solid for a defender.
Liverpool have gone 6 games undefeated now after that terrible patch of 3 losses on the bounce last month, and face Wolves home, Leeds home and Burnley home in their next 5. Still waiting for a Van Dijk bullet header, he did have that one vs Man City ruled out, but yeah if he can have one of those goal plus clean sheet games it would be huge. ⚽
Midfield
Let's get in to the midfield where there's been two changes.
It's Le Fee, Cunha, Foden and Saka.
I was posting about Enzo Le Fee the other day, half joking here but he does make sense for my team because budget is so tight. I had 4.9m in the bank for a Semenyo replacement. He's exactly 4.9m, has Leeds home next, he resolves the concern I had with my team which was the lack of bench depth, he's actually on penalties, takes some corners, Sunderland have had 2 direct attempts from free kicks this season which were both him. And most importantly his initially spell ELF. 🎄
I'm probably only going to get 2 pointers off him though you can do worse for 4.9m and he opens the door to other plays I really want.
One of those is Cunha who has come in for Bruno, looking really good lately, his last 3 games in a row he's registered over 1 xGI. Top in the league over the last 4 for non-pen xGI. I'm hoping Newcastle home could end up a wide open game given Newcastle's defensive injuries, hopefully one of those games where they both end up throwing punches because neither team can defend as well as they'd want to due to injuries. Anyway beyond Newcastle he has Wolves home, Leeds away, Burnley away.
Pep's always done extremely well against Dyche, they've faced each other 18 times and Dyche has never won. 16 of those 18 are losses. Pep's City have scored 53 goals in those 18 meetings so on average 2.94 goals per game.
Saka seems to be the one being heavily sacrificed for Ekitike, it might pay off but I wasn't comfortable losing Saka. Maybe that's Arsenal bias, I appreciate Rice has scored more points per game. Saka is also nice as a possible Palmer placeholder, not just yet obviously but is Palmer settles in as he eases back from injury and looks good then from GW21 or 22 Chelsea's fixtures are amazing.
Forwards
The final change is up front, it's Thiago, Ekitike and Haaland.
Ekitike comes in for Marc Guiu. Before I had Marc Guiu and Ba both not playing on the bench, so using 3 free transfers Bruno has been fixed, the bench depth has been fixed and the very in form Ekitike comes in before two incredible fixtures. He is looking very sharp and Isak is out for months with a broken leg.
Liverpool are top for projected goals this week according to the bookis, 2.8 goals for them, Arsenal second on 2.3, Man City 2.0, then Chelsea, Man Utd, Brentford. So pretty good coverage with my mids and attackers on the projections this week. 🎯
The other path I did strongly consider was selling Thiago to Ekitike, which freed up the money for Ba to Szoboszlai instead, that's a really tight call. I had to remind myself of GW11 earlier in the season where it was a choice between Minteh and Thiago, which looked 50/50 at the time and I backed the striker, on pens if nothing else. Szoboszlai could be incredible if he keeps playing RW though, it does depend on Bradley and Frimpong available, you don't want a reverse out of position Szoboszlai in right back. Thiago hasn't even come close to scoring the last couple, he's not even shot though with 3 home games in their next 4 I was reluctant to let him go just yet.
Captaincy & Future Plans
Who's the best captain? 👨✈️
The captain widget has Ekitike, Wirtz and Haaland on 5 stars so it's close. I'm going with Haaland in all likelihood, but don't mind Ekitike captain. It's just the potential for early subs to protect him that nudges it to Haaland for me.
So the bench is Dubravka, Mukiele, Andersen and Ba. Bench looking better this weel! No free transfers left, nothing in the bank. It's always a risk going early, some people bought Ekitike on Saturday night only for Bruno to get his first serious injury of his entire career, anything can happen.
Given I was going to be priced out of the three moves made, plus the fact that I've got better bench depth I felt I could justify the risk.
So just to recap the three transfers made:
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Marc Guiu to Ekitike 🔄
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Bruno to Cunha 🔄
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Semenyo to Le Fee 🔄
Hoping to roll a couple transfers after this week because I don't like stringing along with only 1 banked.
Looking further afield, I could roll to GW20 then in GW21 Saka to Palmer, maybe Tarkowski to Gabriel around then too for triple defence. Around then Munoz should be back as well though so he's an option, he was unbelievable for me the run I had him this season and would love to get him back in, that will also be around when Bruno could be back so I'll need to keep that in mind because he's such a ridiculously good FPL asset and will be even cheaper at that point.
See you soon for the next one! 👋
Please note my team and plans aren’t locked in and can change!