Welcome back for another article.
Well, a LOT has changed over the space of just a few days in the FPL landscape. Who are the best players to buy for GW18? Let's break it down simple by discussing each position.
Chaos in FPL is also a big opportunity, so we'll look at how you can benefit. Goalkeepers first and defensively there's a few stand out games - Liverpool have Wolves home, Everton face Burnley away and Arsenal have Brighton home.
Defenders
Therefore the top 3 keepers as far as GW18 projections are Alisson, Pickford, Raya. We've been waiting for this week for a while from an Everton perspective. The fixtures now turn and stay good for the very long term - Burnley, Forest, Brentford, Wolves, Villa, Leeds, Brighton, Fulham, Bournemouth, Man Utd.
Still a bit pricy for 5.5m but there's every chance over this spell Pickford can outscore Raya who is .5m more now. Over the next 5 gameweeks in fact only .6 projected points separates the two with Raya marginally ahead but they're so close it's basically noise in the data and not something to draw a definitive conclusion from.
Last gameweek was a great one for keepers, Kelleher also saving a penalty and keeping a clean sheet for a 13 pointer, Verbruggen made 6 saves vs Sunderland and kept a clean sheet himself plus took maximum bonus for an 11 pointer.
Verbruggen still looks amazing for 4.4m, just not this week when he has Arsenal away, from GW19 Brighton also have good long term fixtures. Starting with West Ham and Burnley. I'd avoid Palace defence, they're very stretched right now and it showed last gameweek after conceding 4 to Leeds. Palace have to play Arsenal away in the league cup before GW18 as well - that's the only midweek fixture. Arsenal can afford to roll out a rotated team, Palace probably can't if they want any chance of progressing.
Defenders
Van Dijk is top this week on 5.3 points, then Tarkowski with 4.9, Timber 4.7 in third. If you're not looking to buy Pickford, then Tarkowski is a very strong alternative for the same price. He's registering 10.3 defcons per 90 and a 65% success rate. Which ranks third best, Senesi with 81% and Andersen with 67% defcon rate are the only two higher.
Everton are that sweet spot of clean sheet and defcon potential which can make a Tarkowski one of the best defenders in the game, his next 5 projections are third behind Van Dijk and Timber only. The only thing to note is that he is on 4 yellow cards, if he gets 1 more before GW20 then he'll be suspended for 1 game.
What about Keane then for .8m cheaper? He's great as well, better points per million in fact, he's actually on 4 more points and some Everton fans would argue he's been the better centre half this season. Once Branthwaite returns there is a chance Keane drops out but that would be another month or so away so Keane is a great option too.
Gabriel is nearing a return, he'll hope it's next match if not GW19 for Villa home is the game that has been earmarked. What about O'Reilly as a transfer in for 5.3m? Not on the table this week for Forest away but still a great option to pick up. If you use the Focal app or site on the statistics page there's some presets you can load and one of those is 4+ points hit rate.
In other words which players have the highest floor and score 4 or more points the most? Excluding benchings. O'Reilly is the #1 defender in the league in that respect with 4+ points in 77% of starts, then it's James, Munoz, Chalobah, Guehi, Alderete, Cucurella, Ruben, Gvardiol.
Your own assessment required of course, for example James just doesn't start regularly enough so his looks great without that context. It's a great fixture for the super cheap defenders Mukiele and Alderete with Leeds home, if you need a super cheap defender to get you through this week or maybe as a combination pair of moves to fund something else then they're amazing. Mukiele is averaging 9.8 defcons per 90, Alderete 9.5.
Midfielders
Midfielders next and the template has been ripped up before our eyes, which is an opportunity. Amorim was asked about it, and said Mainoo is out, Bruno is out so we'll see. No excuses, we'll try to win the next game. He also said quote "I think he's going to lose some games".
Who's the best Bruno replacement? Looking at the next 5 projections Saka, Cunha, Foden are the ones that leap out. Palmer as well however he feels a major risk for minutes right now given Maresca would not use him for the midweek games on his return and the schedule right now is equally busy.
Wirtz tops the table this week with 6.3 points as Liverpool face rock bottom Wolves. No team has ever had fewer points than Wolves (2 points) after 17 games in all four English football league divisions since 1888.
I would prioritise Cunha, Saka or Foden though. I've got an interesting stat for you which might be a sign if you haven't got him. Over the last 4 gameweeks Cunha is top in the entire league for non-penalty expected goal involvement with 3.54. More than Haaland's 2.92 even.
It's not out of the question for Cunha to be on pens for whatever period Bruno isn't in the team, Sesko's pen record is good though so it could be him. The next 4 are amazing fixtures as well:
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Newcastle home
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Wolves home
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Leeds away
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Burnley away
In the context of Newcastle's injuries it could be one of those games that is attack first.
Now, one talking point that is being massively overlooked is Bruno's return to play. Currently that's a big question mark and Amorim wasn't sure himself, it's not impossible Bruno just misses one game - so something to keep in mind strategy wise is asking yourself: How do I get Bruno back if he's available soon?
He's the best midfielder in the game and you do not want to miss those fixtures if he's back sooner than later. He held his hamstring during the game, and later signaled to the bench but still played on all the way til half time. So to play devil's advocate it's worth entertaining the thought of Bruno returning soon rather than being out a while. For my team as an example it would be Saka back to Bruno most likely.
Mac Allister makes the table, though for 6.2 there's better options. For 5.8m Wilson has West Ham away, then Palace away, before Liverpool and Chelsea. So that's a couple of nice fixtures.
There's a risky but possibly very rewarding midfielder who doesn't quite make the table this week - Gordon. He's on 4.0 points with an estimated 74 minutes, Newcastle's next 5 is Man Utd, Burnley, Palace, Leeds, Wolves. All 5 of those amazing from an attacking perspective plus he's on pens. However does he start all 5? That's very debatable, and the problem with Gordon is he definitely comes off the bench if he doesn't start one of those. It might not matter though, there could be a boatload of goals in that run, he's 7.3m and on pens.
Rice makes the table with 4.5 projected points, he's actually averaging slightly more points per game than Saka so far this season, and on more overall points. So it's a bit tricky to justify Saka right now in that context, though Saka has that promise of past seasons where we know he can go through spells of being one of the very best assets in the entire game. 17 goal involvements last season in 20 starts, 28 the year before, 26 the year before that, 20 before that. Gyokeres suggested penalty takers could be rotated so despite him taking the last one it could very well be Saka next.
I'm reluctant to let go of him just yet but you'll get a very different answer depending who you ask, for example Saka to Rice and Thiago to Ekitike is a popular move this week.
There's one super cheap mid to draw attention to that I'm considering, because he's the man that opens the door to buying Ekitike without losing Saka - Le Fee. He's 4.9m, on penalties and has Leeds home next. 2 goals 3 assists this season for 60 points in total. Has started taking more corners as well, over the last 6 gameweeks he's taken 14 which ranks 8th in the league. 1 shot off a direct free kick too. So a potential set of moves like Semenyo to Le Fee, Bruno to Cunha, Guiu to Ekitike.
Forwards
Speaking of Ekitike let's move on to forwards because he's the other big talking point this week. He's exploded up the forward rankings in recent weeks, with 5 goals in his last 3 games.
Further to that Isak went off injured after scoring and is going to be out for months with a leg break. So he's nailed that's a certainty, and this was always the thing with Ekitike. He started the season pretty well with 3 goals and an assist in his first 5. Probably won't be on pens, he's actually taken 7 and missed 4 so he's missed more than he's scored in his career. Szobo, Mac Allister, maybe Gakpo could all be ahead in the pecking order. Though when you consider the fact that Liverpool play Wolves and Leeds home back to back he could still justify the 8.8m price tag, they also have Fulham in GW20, then Arsenal away, then Burnley home GW22. Besides Arsenal the next 5 are ridiculously good fixtures.
His projected points are very much dependent on minutes, I've got him, on 80 which is 6.2 points, and that's .4 points behind Haaland who is top this week. Given the Isak injury there will likely be some early subs when games are wrapped up.
Thiago is the player many are selling for him, he's blanked for 4 games in a row and hasn't even gotten close to scoring, he hasn't shot the past 2 games and those fixtures were Wolves and Leeds where you'd expect him to at least have shot.
It's likely not worth ripping your team up with hits to get Ekitike though, fundamentally Thiago isn't going to not shoot forever and they have 3 home games in their next 4, Bournemouth home next who have had an atrocious away record. Burnley are the only team with a worst xG conceded than Bournemouth's 17.3 in away fixtures.
Again you'll get different opinions depending on who you ask, I've not quite come around to selling Thiago and instead looking at how to move Guiu up to Ekitike if I buy him at all.
West Ham have three home games in their next 4 as well, it's Fulham home, Brighton home, Wolves away, Forest home. Bowen is only 7% owned as well, he could be a mega differential when you also consider the fact that he's going to be totally nailed in this busy period, probably 90 minutes every single game. If I were buying a forward this week it would be Ekitike or Bowen.
Calvert-Lewin of course has now scored for 5 consecutive games. The fixtures are just horrendous and he's very streaky, he can just as easily go 10 games without scoring, in fact up until GW13 he only returned in 1 game, and he has Liverpool and Newcastle in his next 4 away. Plus Sunderland away next.