Welcome back for another article.
Well, a LOT has changed over the space of just a few days in the FPL landscape. Who are the best players to buy for GW18? Let's break it down simple by discussing each position.
Chaos in FPL is also a big opportunity, so we'll look at how you can benefit. Goalkeepers first and defensively there's a few stand out games - Liverpool have Wolves home, Everton face Burnley away and Arsenal have Brighton home.
Defenders
Therefore the top 3 keepers as far as GW18 projections are Alisson, Pickford, Raya. We've been waiting for this week for a while from an Everton perspective. The fixtures now turn and stay good for the very long term - Burnley, Forest, Brentford, Wolves, Villa, Leeds, Brighton, Fulham, Bournemouth, Man Utd.
Still a bit pricy for 5.5m but there's every chance over this spell Pickford can outscore Raya who is .5m more now. Over the next 5 gameweeks in fact only .6 projected points separates the two with Raya marginally ahead but they're so close it's basically noise in the data and not something to draw a definitive conclusion from.
Last gameweek was a great one for keepers, Kelleher also saving a penalty and keeping a clean sheet for a 13 pointer, Verbruggen made 6 saves vs Sunderland and kept a clean sheet himself plus took maximum bonus for an 11 pointer.
Verbruggen still looks amazing for 4.4m, just not this week when he has Arsenal away, from GW19 Brighton also have good long term fixtures. Starting with West Ham and Burnley. I'd avoid Palace defence, they're very stretched right now and it showed last gameweek after conceding 4 to Leeds. Palace have to play Arsenal away in the league cup before GW18 as well - that's the only midweek fixture. Arsenal can afford to roll out a rotated team, Palace probably can't if they want any chance of progressing.
Defenders
Van Dijk is top this week on 5.3 points, then Tarkowski with 4.9, Timber 4.7 in third. If you're not looking to buy Pickford, then Tarkowski is a very strong alternative for the same price. He's registering 10.3 defcons per 90 and a 65% success rate. Which ranks third best, Senesi with 81% and Andersen with 67% defcon rate are the only two higher.
Everton are that sweet spot of clean sheet and defcon potential which can make a Tarkowski one of the best defenders in the game, his next 5 projections are third behind Van Dijk and Timber only. The only thing to note is that he is on 4 yellow cards, if he gets 1 more before GW20 then he'll be suspended for 1 game.
What about Keane then for .8m cheaper? He's great as well, better points per million in fact, he's actually on 4 more points and some Everton fans would argue he's been the better centre half this season. Once Branthwaite returns there is a chance Keane drops out but that would be another month or so away so Keane is a great option too.
Gabriel is nearing a return, he'll hope it's next match if not GW19 for Villa home is the game that has been earmarked. What about O'Reilly as a transfer in for 5.3m? Not on the table this week for Forest away but still a great option to pick up. If you use the Focal app or site on the statistics page there's some presets you can load and one of those is 4+ points hit rate.
In other words which players have the highest floor and score 4 or more points the most? Excluding benchings. O'Reilly is the #1 defender in the league in that respect with 4+ points in 77% of starts, then it's James, Munoz, Chalobah, Guehi, Alderete, Cucurella, Ruben, Gvardiol.
Your own assessment required of course, for example James just doesn't start regularly enough so his looks great without that context. It's a great fixture for the super cheap defenders Mukiele and Alderete with Leeds home, if you need a super cheap defender to get you through this week or maybe as a combination pair of moves to fund something else then they're amazing. Mukiele is averaging 9.8 defcons per 90, Alderete 9.5.