FPL GW17 Complete

Guide ✅< Return to Articles

🔮 GW17 Tactical Preview 🔮

⭐️ Breaking Down Every Game
⭐️ Rating FPL Prospects
⭐️ Predicting Results

⚫️ Newcastle vs Chelsea 🔵

Newcastle:

• Will press aggressively in their 4-3-3

• As Chelsea progress, they'll sit in a 4-5-1 (see image)

• The likes of Gordon, Elanga, Woltemade, Barnes and Murphy can be dangerous in transition

Chelsea:

• Caicedo is available – big boost

• Palmer played in the RHS last week – he's devastating there

• In GW16, Everton created chances as the game opened up

Analysis

Newcastle's aggressive press can force errors and lead to big chances. However, Newcastle's 4-5-1 can be passive – Maresca likes to use movement from the FBs and Palmer to find gaps against this type of structure.

If the game becomes end-to-end, both sides have enough firepower to decide the game.

Prediction: Tight game, Chelsea win!

FPL Ratings

• NEW Defence 🟠 – Not expecting a CS, but it's a good DEFCON opportunity

• NEW Attack 🟢 – This is the type of game Newcastle's attackers thrive in

• CHE Defence 🟠 – Good DEFCON opportunity

• CHE Attack 🟢 – They tend to turn it on when they face an aggressive high press

🎯 Differential Pick: Neto (9.4%) – He's in great form, and playing close to Palmer should lead to chances!

🍒 Bournemouth vs Burnley 🍷

Bournemouth:

• Press aggressively in a 4-1-4-1 (see image)

• Vulnerable whenever they get attacked

• Very direct on the ball, and constantly look for long balls forward

Burnley:

• Will most likely play a 4-4-2

• Tend to open up as games go on

• Conceded from 2 corners against Fulham

Analysis

Bournemouth were carved open at Old Trafford, but Burnley might not have the attacking quality to take advantage the way United did. If the game becomes end-to-end, Bournemouth have them outgunned.

Adams' injury could be a big miss, but I expect Bournemouth to keep Burnley relatively quiet.

Prediction: Bournemouth win!

FPL Ratings

• BOU Defence 🟠 – Fair chance of a CS, and a decent DEFCON opportunity

• BOU Attack 🟢 – If Burnley open up, this could be a big scoreline

• BUR Defence 🟠 – Good DEFCON opportunity, but I don't see a CS

• BUR Attack 🟠 – Bournemouth will give them opportunities, but it's hard to back Burnley's attack

🎯 Differential Pick: Tavernier (1.9%) – On his day, he's capable of an explosive haul!

🕊️ Brighton vs Sunderland 🐈‍⬛

Brighton:

• Have looked open on the counter in their last 3 games

• Will most likely dominate the ball

• Happy to drop into a compact shape without the ball (see image)

Sunderland:

• Always use a 4-3-3 structure on the ball and usually a 5-4-1 or a 4-4-2 without the ball

• Lack cutting edge in the final third

• Can be very difficult to break down

Analysis

I expect Brighton to dominate possession, while Sunderland sit in their shape and play on the counter. Although Brighton have looked open in transition, I'm not sure Sunderland will be able to punish them.

Also, Sunderland have lost 4 regular starters to AFCON – this could have a big impact.

Prediction: Tight game, Brighton win!

FPL Ratings

• BHA Defence 🟠 – Decent chance of a CS, but not much of a DEFCON opportunity

• BHA Attack 🟠 – Sunderland have a solid low block

• SUN Defence 🟠 – Good DEFCON opportunity, plus a small chance of a CS

• SUN Attack 🟠 – Brighton are vulnerable on the counter, but Sunderland's attack won't be as strong without Talbi and Traore

🎯 Differential Pick: Minteh (7.2%) – Reinildo is away at AFCON, and Minteh looked sharp at Anfield!

🔵 Manchester City vs West Ham ⚒️

Manchester City:

• Doku is out – this removes a huge 1v1 threat from the side

• Vulnerable in transition

• Will dominate the ball and create central overloads

West Ham:

• Played a 4-3-3 last week, but have also used a 5-4-1 recently (see image)

• Their defensive block drops very deep without the ball, which invites pressure

• Diouf and Wan-Bissaka are at AFCON – they may be weak in the full-back area

Analysis

If West Ham play their 4-3-3/4-5-1, I expect City to cut through them and score at least 2 goals (Liverpool easily beat this system).

If they play a 5-4-1, West Ham's chances of a result massively increase. Without Doku's 1v1 threat, City may look less threatening against a strong low block.

Prediction: A 5-4-1 could cause an upset, but I think we'll see a City win!

FPL Ratings

• MCI Defence 🟠 – Not super confident in a CS, but there's still a fair chance of one

• MCI Attack 🟢 – If West Ham play a back 4 and/or City score early, this could be a big scoreline

• WHU Defence 🔴 – Good DEFCON opportunity, but I don't see a CS

• WHU Attack 🟠 – City were opened up in transition at Palace

🎯 Differential Pick: Cherki (5.4%) – Extremely creative and might be the key to unlocking West Ham's low block!

🐺 Wolves vs Brentford 🐝

Wolves:

• Kept Arsenal quiet in their 5-3-2 (see image)

• Look vulnerable when games open up

• Don't have a creator in attack (eg. Cunha), so they tend to waste attacking opportunities

Brentford:

• Lacked threat when they faced Leeds' 5-3-2

• Their defence can be error-prone

• Big threat in transition

Analysis

The key for Wolves is to sit deep and let Brentford dominate the ball. If they engage in a chaotic game, I think Brentford will have too much for them (even without Dango).

Prediction: Draw!

FPL Ratings

• WOL Defence 🟠 – If they sit deep, there's a decent chance they keep Brentford quiet

• WOL Attack 🟠 – Brentford looked vulnerable to counter-attacks against Leeds

• BRE Defence 🟠 – Small chance of a CS, with the possibility of DEFCON

• BRE Attack 🟢 – If this game opens up, Brentford can score plenty of goals

🎯 Differential Pick: Schade (0.7%) – His pace in transition could be a big problem for Wolves!

⚪️ Spurs vs Liverpool 🔴

Spurs:

• Will press high (see image)

• Have struggled playing out of a press

• Generally lack progression on the ball

Liverpool:

• Without Salah, they've looked weaker in attack

• Conceded a lot of chances against Brighton (1.9xG)

• Ekitike has looked very sharp, especially in more open games

Analysis

Spurs can cause Liverpool problems with their high press, especially considering Van Dijk won't have a long diagonal to Salah available. Similarly, Spurs have been error-prone against high presses.

Both sides sit deep in a 4-4-2 without the ball, and have been opened up recently.

Prediction: Tough one to call, narrow Liverpool win!

FPL Ratings

• TOT Defence 🟠 – Don't see a CS, but it's a decent DEFCON opportunity

• TOT Attack 🟠 – I expect them to cause Liverpool some problems

• LIV Defence 🟠 – Good DEFCON opportunity, and a fair chance of a CS

• LIV Attack 🟢 – Spurs have been very open in big games (Chelsea and Arsenal)

🎯 Differential Pick: Isak (4.3%) – Expect him to start alongside Ekitike, and he's played well against Spurs in the past!

🍬 Everton vs Arsenal 🔴

Everton:

• Gueye and Ndiaye are at AFCON + Grealish and Dewsbury-Hall are doubts

• Were quite passive off the ball against Chelsea

• They press high, push up the pitch and progress the ball quickly

Arsenal:

• Struggled to break down Wolves' low block

• Conceded more dangerous chances to Wolves than we would've expected

• Are very dangerous when teams open up

Analysis

Everton will probably sit in a deep block (see image) and try to play on the counter. If Everton open up, I expect Arsenal to blow them away (especially if Grealish and KDH aren't available).

If Everton put out a strong side, I expect this game to be tight.

Prediction: Arsenal win!

FPL Ratings

• EVE Defence 🟠 – Decent DEFCON opportunity, but a CS is unlikely

• EVE Attack 🔴 – I don't expect them to get many opportunities

• ARS Defence 🟢 – Good chance of a CS

• ARS Attack 🟠 – Everton will probably sit in a deep block

🎯 Differential Pick: Odegaard (1.7%) – Expect him to start, and he's one of the lower-owned Arsenal attackers!

⚪️ Leeds vs Crystal Palace 🦅

Leeds:

• Have been playing a 5-3-2 recently (see image)

• Calvert-Lewin has 4 goals in 4 games and is playing well

• Their low block isn't the most solid, and they tend to open up as games go on

Crystal Palace:

• Tough to break down in their 5-4-1

• Will be without their right-side duo of Munoz and Sarr

• Are most vulnerable when they dominate the ball

Analysis

I think Leeds can frustrate Palace with their 5-3-2. Also, losing Munoz and Sarr's pace in behind could blunt Palace's attack.

If this game opens up, it could go either way.

Prediction: Draw!

FPL Ratings

• LEE Defence 🟠 – Decent DEFCON opportunity, with a small chance of a CS

• LEE Attack 🟠 – Palace are a solid defence, but I expect Leeds to have moments

• CRY Defence 🟢 – Decent chance of a CS

• CRY Attack 🟠 – Leeds can be opened up, but Palace's attack will lack pace

🎯 Differential Pick: Calvert-Lewin (4.0%) – Has scored 4 in 4, and I expect him to get at least a couple of good chances!

🥷 Aston Villa vs Manchester United 👹

Aston Villa:

• They press high but are also happy to sit in a compact 4-4-2 (see image)

• Can be dangerous in transition

• Have been slightly fortunate recently

Manchester United:

• Will be missing their right-side duo of Mbeumo and Amad

• Their attack has looked very slick recently

• Very open in transition

Analysis

I expect United to be less threatening in attack without the pace and 1v1 threat of both Amad and Mbeumo. Villa can be vulnerable in transition, given their high line, but United's attack has just lost its speed.

Watkins' movement could cause United's defence serious issues, as they struggled to keep Bournemouth quiet.

Prediction: Aston Villa win!

FPL Ratings

• AVL Defence 🟠 – Decent DEFCON opportunity, with a small chance of a CS

• AVL Attack 🟢 – United's defence has been poor

• MU Defence 🔴 – Not expecting a CS

• MU Attack 🟠 – Cunha and Bruno are in great form + United could cause issues on the counter

🎯 Differential Pick: Watkins (7.7%) – He's been unlucky this season and I can see him causing serious issues!

⚪️ Fulham vs Nottingham Forest 🌳

Fulham:

• Losing Iwobi, Chukwueze and Bassey to AFCON might make them more defensively solid

• They are usually tough to break down in their 4-4-2 (see image)

• Are vulnerable when games get stretched

Nottingham Forest:

• Will play a 4-4-2

• Murillo's return improves their defence

• Haven't been super solid in recent weeks

Analysis

I think both sides will largely cancel each other out. Marco Silva will likely bring Lukic back into the side, which should solidify their midfield.

I expect this to be a very tight game.

Prediction: Narrow Fulham win!

FPL Ratings

• FUL Defence 🟠 – Decent DEFCON opportunity, with a fair chance of a CS

• FUL Attack 🟠 – I don't think they'll get many chances

• NFO Defence 🟠 – Decent DEFCON opportunity, with a fair chance of a CS

• NFO Attack 🟠 – I don't think they'll get many chances

🎯 Differential Pick: Raul (2.7%) – Low-owned, nailed on to start and is most likely on pens!