Welcome back for another article.
⚽ Who are the best players to buy for GW17?
4 gameweeks in 11 days—it's a crunch time part of the season where a good run can completely change your season in a short space of time. Let's break it down nice and simple discussing each position.
🧤 Goalkeepers
So just looking at the fixtures there's quite a few showing clean sheet potential: Raya has Everton away, Man City home to West Ham, Bournemouth are home to Burnley, Brentford have Wolves away. It's a three-way tie top of the table this week with Raya, Donnarumma and Petrovic all on 4.0 projected points on FPL Review.
With so many good fixtures lined up it's a good Free Hit week. If I had mine active I would actually have Petrovic in goal, and use those City and Arsenal spots on outfield players: Timber, Calafiori, Saka, O'Reilly, Foden, Haaland, etc.
- Over the season Raya, Petrovic and Kelleher have actually underperformed in terms of xG prevented, which measures expected goals on target minus the number of goals actually conceded.
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To gauge the quality of the goalkeeping, Petrovic is third worst on -3.8 in that respect, Kelleher -3.5.
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Martinez and Henderson have been best in the league in that respect, both on +2.7 xG prevented thanks to some top-class saves. It's not the be-all and end-all for who is a good keeper or not but it's still interesting data to me.
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Roefs again unsurprisingly has done amazingly for xG prevented. He's now the top-scoring keeper after that clean sheet against Newcastle while Raya conceded to Wolves despite 0.38 xGC.
As far as overall defense quality, Arsenal are still miles ahead of everyone else with only 10 goals conceded, 5 fewer than next best. 9.9 xG conceded is about 8xG better than next best which is Newcastle, then Man City, then Palace. Only 16 big chances conceded also league-leading.
All my data tables are public in the Scout members area, link in the description for 50% off. Once you're in there go to the public data tables area and search my name and you'll find all the tables I use for FPL.
Ramsdale's stint in goal hasn't gone as well as he'd have hoped with no clean sheets in 4 appearances. It sounds like Pope could even be back next gameweek. Before the Sunderland game Howe said he's the closest of all players out injured and we'll have to wait and see on his availability. The rumour is that Burn has a rib fracture which is not great; Newcastle could be down to 4 senior defenders. If you've still got him at this stage I'd be inclined to keep hold though unless you can buy Raya, assuming he's expected back next gameweek. Newcastle hit a great run of games from GW19 onward soon.
🛡️ Defenders
Let's talk defenders next then and this week O'Reilly tops our table on 5.1 points. What a breakout season it's been for him! 50m splashed on Ait-Nouri only for him to have a breakout campaign, and of course Ait-Nouri has left for AFCON. I wouldn't expect him back until about GW21 based on the progression odds. So it's the perfect time to buy him. There's every chance he holds that spot down too. He's without a doubt in Pep's best 11 right now and has an eye for goal. Matheus Nunes is as well and did get the assist + clean sheet last match; he's on 4.2 points so just barely misses out on making the table due to slightly lower expected minutes than O'Reilly, just in case Pep randomly starts Khusanov or Lewis right-back or something like that, but he should still be solid for starts. He's growing into that role week by week.
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Defender expected goal involvement rankings this season has Timber top on 4.11 xGI, Munoz 3.77, O'Reilly 3.13.
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And O'Reilly has started 12 out of a possible 16 games. His first start came in GW4.
Senesi and Truffert are on the table this week for Burnley home. Bournemouth's fixtures aren't great beyond GW17 though so I'd avoid besides on a Free Hit.
Calafiori returns from suspension and is expected to come straight back in at left-back, amazing option for 5.7, a whole 0.8m cheaper than Timber. Fortunately Timber was fine to start last match, as was Saliba, so the Arsenal defence is gradually getting back to full strength though they did lose White to injury which isn't ideal to afford Timber the occasional rest. Arsenal face Everton who have lost Ndiaye and Gueye to AFCON, possibly Dewsbury-Hall and Grealish to injury as well so that could be a huge number of starters missing.
If you're looking at cheap defenders rather than Senesi or Truffert, van Den berg looks better. They've got more fixtures you can use them in from now until end of Jan. Collins is great too but on 4 yellows so I'd save the 0.4m and not risk it.
👑 Midfielders
Midfielders next and it's another City player top of the table, Foden on 6.2 points. Not significantly ahead of Semenyo on 6.0 points. That's 55 points in Foden's last 4 games, more than he'd scored in his previous 23 games combined and that's the first time in FPL history he's managed 4 double-digit returns in a row. For comparison last season in Salah's record-breaking season the most he hit in a row was 4 as well. So it truly is a crazy run he's on. Will he make it 5 in a row?
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He's number 1 priority transfer this week given Man City are home to West Ham who cannot stop conceding and have now lost Diouf and Wan-Bissaka.
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If you've got him already then you're in a good position to spend transfers elsewhere.
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It might sound mad but Semenyo is worth considering even for one week only then hop back off - though to consider this you ideally need to have a strong team that doesn't have other areas that need improvement.
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It doesn't necessarily have to be for one week, you can hold him for Brentford away in GW18 too then sell.
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The midfield picks itself if you're on a Free Hit: Foden, Semenyo, Bruno, Saka, plus Schade if on a 3-5-2.
Schade has served his suspension for accruing 5 yellows and returns for the game vs Wolves who are another one that cannot stop conceding. Wilson creeps in at the bottom of the table, on 4.5 projected points. I have to hold my hands up and say he's proving me wrong. Every year the past 3 or 4 years he's gone through these purple patches and then Silva ends up rotating him or the form stops but he's having a great season and his minutes are better too. Fulham have Forest home then West Ham away, then Palace away so he looks a great cheap enabler for 5.5m, much more exciting than an Anderson-type mid. Anderson is on 3.8 points. Definitely don't sell Minteh for him though, the table suggests that's a sideways move this week which could backfire.
On a Free Hit you could throw in Cherki, who should in theory start given recent performances. As a reminder there's a few midweek games before GW17:
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Chelsea play Cardiff away in the League Cup Tuesday.
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Man City are home to Brentford.
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Newcastle home to Fulham in the League Cup as well.
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Then Palace play on Thursday in Europa Conference League.
So hopefully those key assets like O'Reilly, Foden, Haaland, etc. get a midweek rest before next gameweek.
🚀 Forwards
Speaking of, let's look at the forwards next. About 1.4 million managers bought Thiago last week only for him not to register a shot, 0.0 xG. A Dango penalty won but ruled offside - fine margins from another penalty plus bonus for him. He's second on the table so he's still perfectly fine to buy. It's a pretty dreadful list of forwards, isn't it? It does feel like midfield and defence is where the points are right now (4-5-1, 3-5-2, 4-4-2) but a front 3 formation hasn't done consistently well.
Last gameweek if you had Ekitike you probably did well though after his brace for a 13-pointer. He took 7 shots in fact which was more than any player in the weekend's games. Gakpo is out for a couple weeks so in theory his minutes are pretty good, plus Isak was out last match. He's just too expensive to tempt me for 8.5m. I'd rather save 1 million and look at Bowen - from GW18. No Bowen on the table away to City next, but he's completely nailed, plays 90 every match, he's their talisman and has amazing fixtures from GW18 if you can get to him. Under 10% owned.
Thanks for watching, see you soon for the next one.