👋 Welcome back for another article
How did the free hit get on? It was a weird week - heading in to the final game was only on 42 points and even that I was happy with because the team was 16 points up where it would have been. The pre-free hit team only had one return which was Saka, after the final game the red arrow was green and a 24 point gain on the free hit I'm very happy with. I had no way to get to Foden without selling Bruno or Saka with a free transfers which I wasn't going to do, so the free hit bailed me out.
So that takes us up to 25K. By far the most painful moment was during Newcastle vs Burnley, Burnley got a first half red card and the clean sheet looked a certainty because Newcastle were cruising. In stoppage time at the end of the match Ramsey handballs it which gives Burnley a penalty and the double clean sheet is wiped. Can't help but feel aggrieved as that would've put me on the cusp of 10K but all in all a good week. Gordon 10 pointer, Donnarumma clean sheet, Foden with 3 double digit returns in 3 games, Bruno 18 pointer and Mbeumo also scoring that match.
I've made 3 transfers already, let's run through the team for GW16, future transfer plans, captaincy and everything else.
🧤 Goalkeepers
In goal Raya has Wolves home and Arsenal are comfortably top on the clean sheet odds this week. Their goal against Man Utd last gameweek was their only goal in their last 6 matches.
🛡️ Defence
So one of the three transfers made was Timber in, and I've doubled up. The defence is Vann Dijk, Mukiele, Andersen and Timber.
Timber joins the team in place of Truffert who has Man Utd away. The rumours are Gabriel will be back before Christmas so that could actually be GW17 which is just around the corner, Arsenal are in a desperate position at the back and need him and Saliba back as soon as possible. It's a vicious cycle when you've got a few injuries because then other players get overplayed and then they're at greater risk of injury. We might see him CB again this gameweek and hopefully for the last time this season.
A choice between Mukiele and Munoz in the back 4 this week, who would you play? Assuming Munoz is available. I can't imagine a world where Palace keep a clean sheet so I'd be counting on an attacking return from him, he very rarely gets defcon. It's close but I'm on Mukiele for the good defcon potential and better clean sheet potential, though realistically probably concedes home to Newcastle.
Andersen is my favourite budget defender right now, the next 4 are Burnley, Forest, West Ham, Palace. A clean sheet and defcon in any of those games can be a double digit return. 10.92 defcons per 90 is third among all defenders behind Senesi and Van Dijk. Mukiele also among the best with 10.15 per 90 so 3 of my back 4 are generally great for defcons.
I'm actually not in a hurry to sell Van Dijk despite Liverpool's situation as of late. They just managed a clean sheet in the Champions League away at Inter, and he's got some fantastic fixtures. 3 home games in his next 4 to Brighton, Wolves and Leeds. I'm not convinced there's someone I can sell him for that is definitively better, already tripled on Arsenal. Newcastle defenders look great but I'm looking from GW19 Burnly onward, they've got Chelsea and Man Utd in their next 3. So he's fine in my eyes. Liverpool still fifth best for expected goals conceded.
⚽ Midfield
A change in midfield as well. It's Saka, Semenyo, Bruno and Foden.
Now I very rarely make early transfers but was in a very awkward spot where I had exact money to buy both Foden and Timber, plus the rush to spend free transfers before the AFCON top up Saturday night, and then the mass transfers spent after receiving them has make price changes go wild. Took the risk and went early to not price myself out and also benefit from some team value. Foden replaces Enzo. I could have waited and sold Semenyo instead, though I like Bournemouth's next 3 games particularly Burnley home in GW17 so he's staying in for now.
Man Utd vs Bournemouth could have the makings of a high scoring game, Man Utd are now second in the league for expected goals this season. Man City are top, then Utd, Arsenal, Cheslea, Palace, Liverpool. The bottom consists of Burnley, Sunderland, Wolves, Spurs, Fulham and then West Ham. Bruno is now the highest scoring midfielder in the game, well despite missing a couple penalties.
Saka gets the captaincy. I'll be monitoring Champions League minutes, Arsenal have already qualified for the knock out rounds in the Champions League, so this is a golden opportunity to rotate and rest the likes of Saka. Timber too ordinarily but with a bunch of injuries he might have no choice but to play him. There is no excuse not to start Madueke in RW but it's Arteta so who knows. Watching Wolves v Man Utd Monday night really sealed it for me, it was just unbelievable how open Wolves were. Man Utd had 20 shots in the box against them, top of the gameweek, they had 8 big chances also top. 4.24 expected goals, next highest was Man City's 2.42. That's how shaky Wolves looked. I've been here before though a couple gameweeks ago opting for Bruno over Haaland was burned badly and that can always always happen especially going against Haaland. Arsenal lead on projected goals on the Focal app as well with 2.8, next highest is Liverpool's 2.1 home to Brighton, Man Utd 2.0 home to Bournemouth, Man City and Chelsea on 1.9. Arsenal have dropped a lot of points recently and this is no game to mess about in, rest as many players as you can in CL and beat Wolves convincingly.
🚀 Forwards
So up front it's Haaland and Thiago.
I do expect City to get a result as well, Palace have to play on Thursday in the Europa Conference League, one day less rest than City and a much lighter squad. Will know by Saturday night if going against Haaland was a mistake or not most likely given Arsenal vs Wolves is Saturday night and then City play on Sunday.
Dango has been an important player for Brentford and hopefully he's not missed too much while away for AFCON. It's the final gameweek with the AFCON players before they all depart, Brentford home to Leeds as well is an amazing fixture on paper and if you don't own Thiago it's the perfect entry point to buy.
🪑 Bench
The bench is Dubravka, Munoz, Guiu and Ba.
The only thing about those transfers made, is my bench is on the light side, ideally I'd like a minimum of two starters and now have 1 in order to accommodate all those players in the starting 11. Basically just a bit more exposed that is sensible, one unexpected benching in the starting 11 and there's no further depth.
Guiu might have a chance of starting this one, Joao Pedro started in CL as Chelsea lost to Atalanta, Guiu was an unused sub.
So 3 transfers already spent, to recap those were Truffert to Timber, Enzo to Foden and Mateta down to Guiu funded those two upgrades.
That leaves the team with 2 free transfers. Was trying to work out where they could be used and I'm not actually sure currently, which I don't mind at all. Having more booked in transfers on top of the 3 isn't ideal because then I need nothing else to go wrong. Semenyo hopefully stays in for another 3 gameweeks, then maybe he'll swap out for Bruno G - in GW19 Bournemouth have Chelsea then Arsenal meanwhile there's an opposite fixture swing for Newcastle who have Burnley, Palace, Leeds, Wolves.
That's just one possible idea though, lots of ways I could go selling Semenyo in a few gameweeks time. But yeah doing so could give me the funds to also swap Ba to someone like Dewsbury-Hall who has great fixtures soon too.
If Maresca gives any indication that Guiu will start this gameweek then I'll swap him in the 11 for Mukiele. They recalled him from loan for this reason, he surely has to be used but I'm not sure whether we'll get that info from Maresca unless a journalist specifically asks.
Thanks for watching, see you soon for the next one.
Please note my team and plans aren’t locked in and can change!