🔮 GW16 Tactical Preview 🔮
⭐️ Breaking Down Every Game ⭐️ Rating FPL Prospects ⭐️ Predicting Results
🔵 Chelsea vs Everton 🍬
Chelsea:
- Will attack in an aggressive 3-1-6
- Have been poor in the final third recently
- Caicedo is still suspended
Everton:
- Gueye is available, so Dewsbury-Hall will likely play further forward
- Barry scored his first PL goal, a firing CF would be a big boost for Everton
- They're tough to break down in their 4-1-4-1 (see image)
Analysis
Chelsea haven't shown enough attacking threat recently and, without Delap, they've lost a focal point. However, Palmer's return may help them create more chances.
Everton are solid and won't give much away. I expect them to frustrate Chelsea and create chances on the counter.
Prediction: Everton win!
FPL Ratings
- CHE Defence 🟠 - Not expecting a CS without Caicedo
- CHE Attack 🟠 - I think Everton will make life difficult for Chelsea's attack
- EVE Defence 🟠 - Small chance of a CS and a decent DEFCON opportunity
- EVE Attack 🟠 - I don't expect a lot of chances, but the game could open up
🎯 Differential Pick: Dewsbury-Hall (7.5%) - Has been in good form since GW11 and looks sharp!
🔴 Liverpool vs Brighton 🕊️
Liverpool:
- They played a 4-3-1-2 in the Champions League
- I don't expect Salah to start - their attack is quite weak without him
- Have struggled with set-pieces all season + they crumbled against Leeds
Brighton:
- Will press high, but are happy to drop deep without the ball (see image)
- Have struggled with simple balls in behind their defence in the last 2 games
- Can be extremely dangerous when they have momentum
Analysis
Liverpool haven't looked threatening in attack recently and sit very deep without the ball. I expect Brighton to absorb a lot of their attacking pressure and potentially dominate possession for periods.
Because Liverpool don't create a lot, they need to keep Brighton very quiet to get a result. I don't think this will happen.
Prediction: Brighton win!
FPL Ratings
- LIV Defence 🟠 - Not expecting a CS but decent DEFCON opportunity
- LIV Attack 🟠 - They're not creating much
- BHA Defence 🟠 - Small chance of a CS and a decent DEFCON opportunity
- BHA Attack 🟢 - I think this is a good game for Brighton
🎯 Differential Pick: Welbeck (9.9%) - I expect him to get at least a couple of big chances in the game
🍷 Burnley vs Fulham ⚪️
Burnley:
- Will most likely play a 4-4-2
- They tend to open up in the second half
- Can be error-prone in possession (leads to transitions)
Fulham:
- Also play a 4-4-2 (see image), but are far more solid
- Have been getting a lot of attackers on the pitch recently (Iwobi plays deeper)
- Can be caught on the counter when they dominate the ball
Analysis
Fulham are better than Burnley in all phases of the game. I expect them to dominate the game and run away with it.
Prediction: Fulham win!
FPL Ratings
- BUR Defence 🟠 - Not expecting a CS but it's a good DEFCON opportunity
- BUR Attack 🟠 - Fulham will be tough to score against, but they can be vulnerable when they dominate the ball
- FUL Defence 🟢 - Good chance of a CS
- FUL Attack 🟢 - They should create a lot of chances
🎯 Differential Pick: Wilson (2.6%) - He's picked up 2 goals and 2 assists in the last 3 games!
🔴 Arsenal vs Wolves 🐺
Arsenal:
- Will dominate the ball
- Extremely hard to score against
- Can sometimes be passive against low blocks
Wolves:
- Will set up in a 5-3-2/5-4-1 (see image)
- Their block is easy to break through, and they open up as games go on
- Massively lack attacking quality
Analysis
I expect Arsenal to dominate Wolves, break them down, and not give them a sniff at the other end. It could be a huge scoreline.
However, Arteta will likely rotate, and Arsenal sometimes take their foot off the gas when they know a game is won.
Prediction: Comfortable Arsenal win!
FPL Ratings
- ARS Defence 🟢 - Great chance of a CS
- ARS Attack 🟢 - Could be a huge scoreline
- WOL Defence 🔴 - Good DEFCON opportunity, but this could get ugly
- WOL Attack 🔴 - A weak attack up against the best defence in the league
🎯 Differential Pick: Merino (4.0%) - If he starts, I expect him to haul!
🦅 Crystal Palace vs Manchester City 🔵
Crystal Palace:
- Will set up in a very robust 5-4-1 (see image)
- Are missing runners without Sarr and Muñoz
- Can be vulnerable when games are more open
Manchester City:
- Will likely dominate the ball and focus on central overloads
- Have struggled to deal with long balls at times (eg. against Leeds)
- Look very threatening in transition when Cherki's on the pitch
Analysis
Palace's 5-4-1 is good enough to frustrate City, and Mateta's hold-up play can definitely help launch counter-attacks. However, Sarr (assuming he's not fit) and Muñoz's absences will be a big loss for Palace.
City's attacking play has been world-class this season. If the game opens up, I expect them to overwhelm Palace.
Prediction: Tight game, City win!
FPL Ratings
- CRY Defence 🟠 - Decent DEFCON opportunity with a small chance of a CS
- CRY Attack 🟠 - City have been quite vulnerable at times, but Palace's attack isn't the same without Sarr
- MCI Defence 🟠 - Small chance of a CS
- MCI Attack 🟢 - If this opens up, I like their prospects
🎯 Differential Pick: Cherki (3.8%) - Looks really dangerous whenever he plays!
🌳 Nottingham Forest vs Spurs ⚪️
Nottingham Forest:
- Will set up in a 4-4-2 (see image)
- Have looked quite open defensively (especially without Murillo)
- Hutchinson, Gibbs-White and Jesus look dangerous at times
Spurs:
- Their attack played well against Brentford
- Often struggle to break teams down
- Have been open in transition against low blocks
Analysis
I expect Spurs to struggle to create chances against Dyche's 4-4-2 and get hit on the counter. However, if the game becomes back-and-forth, Spurs might have the edge.
Prediction: Nottingham Forest win!
FPL Ratings
- NFO Defence 🟢 - Decent chance of a CS + DEFCON
- NFO Attack 🟠 - I think they'll get moments in transition
- TOT Defence 🟠 - Small chance of a CS, probably not a good DEFCON opportunity
- TOT Attack 🟠 - I don't expect them to create much but Forest have looked open at times
🎯 Differential Pick: Gibbs-White (3.3%) - I expect him to get some good opportunities in transition!
🐈⬛ Sunderland vs Newcastle ⚫️
Sunderland:
- Will most likely sit in a 5-4-1 (see image)
- Can be very difficult to press as their FBs invert and find gaps
- Often lack end product in attack
Newcastle:
- Will set up in a 4-5-1
- Have a lot of threat in transition
- Can struggle against low blocks
Analysis
Sunderland's 5-4-1 is a tough challenge for Newcastle. Eddie Howe's side struggle to break down low blocks and can be susceptible to transitions.
If the game becomes very chaotic, I think Newcastle could come out on top, but it's a derby - anything can happen.
Prediction: Draw!
FPL Ratings
- SUN Defence 🟢 - Decent chance of a CS + DEFCON
- SUN Attack 🟠 - I think they'll get a lot of moments in transition
- NEW Defence 🟠 - Small chance of a CS + DEFCON
- NEW Attack 🟠 - I don't expect them to create much unless it opens up
🎯 Differential Pick: Isidor (2.7%) - Not a guaranteed starter, but I can see Sunderland's CF getting good chances
⚒️ West Ham vs Aston Villa 🥷
West Ham:
- Have been playing a 5-4-1 recently (see image)
- Often defend very deep without the ball
- Bowen and Summerville looked sharp against Brighton
Aston Villa:
- Will set up in a 4-4-2 and focus on central progression
- Can be vulnerable in transition
- Happy to drop off in their 4-4-2 without the ball
Analysis
I think West Ham's 5-4-1 can frustrate Villa and force turnovers. Bowen, Summerville, Paqueta and Wilson possess enough threat to cause havoc in transition.
West Ham are vulnerable when they defend deep because they invite pressure. If they can't force turnovers, it's fairly easy to overwhelm them. Villa can definitely take advantage.
Prediction: Tight game, draw!
FPL Ratings
- WHU Defence 🟠 - Small chance of a CS + decent DEFCON opportunity
- WHU Attack 🟢 - I think they'll get a lot of chances in transition
- AVL Defence 🟠 - Fair chance of a CS
- AVL Attack 🟢 - I think they'll eventually overwhelm West Ham's low block and score goals
🎯 Differential Pick: Bowen (5.8%) - Looks sharp and should get chances in transition!
🐝 Brentford vs Leeds ⚪️
Brentford:
- Schade is out (suspension)
- Will set up in a 4-4-2 (see image)
- Looked very open against Spurs (CBs were poor)
Leeds:
- Usually play a 4-5-1 but might stick to a 5-3-2
- Their front 2 of Nmecha and Calvert-Lewin can be dangerous
- Can be open in transition + drop very deep in their low block
Analysis
Both sides can hurt each other. Brentford have enough firepower to stun Leeds whenever they bypass Leeds' press or counter-attack, whilst Leeds can definitely use their physical front 2 to isolate Brentford's CBs.
I think this will be a tight game - both sides could cancel each other out, which would lead to a cagey game. Or it will open up!
Prediction: Draw!
FPL Ratings
- BRE Defence 🟠 - Small chance of a CS + decent DEFCON opportunity
- BRE Attack 🟢 - I think they'll get a lot of good opportunities
- LEE Defence 🟠 - Small chance of a CS + decent DEFCON opportunity
- LEE Attack 🟢 - They should get chances
🎯 Differential Pick: Dango (1.4%) - Leeds can be vulnerable down their left flank!
👹 Manchester United vs Bournemouth 🍒
Manchester United:
- Set up in a 3-4-3 and go long from goal-kicks
- Can be vulnerable in transition
- Have a lot of threat on the counter
Bournemouth:
- Will press high in their 4-1-4-1 (see image)
- Can be vulnerable in their mid-block
- Will be very physical in midfield
Analysis
United's long goal kicks will negate most of Bournemouth's high pressing, but I expect Iraola's side to dominate the midfield. This could create transition opportunities for Bournemouth.
Both sides have a lot of attacking threat, so this game becomes very hard to predict if it's end-to-end. United's attack can deal serious damage if they can keep Bournemouth penned back for long periods.
Prediction: Draw!
FPL Ratings
- MUN Defence 🟠 - Don't expect a CS but could be a good DEFCON opportunity
- MUN Attack 🟢 - Bournemouth may keep them quiet, but this could open up
- BOU Defence 🟠 - Don't expect a CS but could be a good DEFCON opportunity
- BOU Attack 🟢 - Could get quite a lot of chances in transition
🎯 Differential Pick: Cunha (3.7%) - He's always dangerous when he has space!
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