👋 Welcome back for another article.
Who are the best players to buy for GW16 and beyond? Let's go through each position nice and simple.
🧤 Goalkeepers
GW16 marks the start of a solid long-term run for Brentford. Leeds home first, then they have Wolves, Bournemouth, Spurs, Everton, Sunderland, Chelsea, Forest and Villa.
- As far as cheaper keepers, Kelleher leaps out for only 4.5m.
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They are 11th best for expected goals conceded (xGC) so firmly midtable, but a midtable defence does not equate to average points when it comes to keepers.
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Look at Roefs as an example: 64 points is only a couple off the top spot, even though Sunderland are actually fifth worst defence for xGC, which might also surprise you.
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Brentford have conceded 5 fewer big chances than Sunderland, 46 fewer shots, 39 fewer in the box. So maybe a couple of takeaways there.
Raya is top of the table this week as Arsenal face Wolves home at the Emirates, then it's Leno second playing Burnley away, Alisson after that joint with Kelleher and Sanchez.
Raya is the first 6m keeper since the 2021/22 season where Ederson, Alisson and Mendy were all 6m.
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Liverpool play Brighton home, Chelsea have Everton home. So it's actually another great looking week for the free hit if you are still sitting on it.
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If you have already made transfers and then free hit, you get them back, so basically anyone free hitting this week will have 5 free transfers in GW17.
Ramsdale is in at the bottom of the table. Pope is expected back around GW18 though, so it's not worth it for the sake of 4 gameweeks potentially. So yeah, as I was saying earlier, Roefs is only 2 points off the top spot, which belongs to Raya. Raya just became the first 6.0m goalkeeper since the 2021/22 season, so as far as points per million, he is bad. It's just a case of nailing the right alternative keeper if you don't want to spend that kind of money.
Goalkeeper
Points
Raya
66
Pickford
66 (Tied)
Roefs
64
Henderson
63
Sanchez
57 (Tied)
Vicario
57 (Tied)
🛡️ Defenders
The Arsenal defenders are all over the place right now because Calafiori is now suspended after picking up a fifth yellow, Gabriel is injured, Saliba might be back for the next game.
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Timber is therefore the safest option right now and is the highest scoring Arsenal defender, though a pricy 6.5m.
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That said, it is worth mentioning that it wasn't long ago we used to spend way more than that on the likes of Robertson, Trent, or going back a bit further Alonso, etc. So I actually don't think 6.5m is bad. If Arsenal's defensive form continues over the whole season, next year he will be 7m, Gabriel 6.5m.
Anyway, with Gabriel currently sidelined, Hincapie is a genuinely good pick, albeit a shorter-term option and you are probably going to have to sell after about 4 games. Those 4 are Wolves home, Everton away, Brighton home, Villa home. So 3 home games in 4, in fairness. He's a nice stop-gap for 5.4m. If Saliba is confirmed back, then he is a viable pick too, though Timber could prove worth the extra 0.5m given his upside.
Andersen has a great run of games himself, a potential bargain for 4.5m over this run given his rate of defcons and clean sheet potential. He has hit two 10-pointers this season just from a clean sheet and defcon.
Palace face City this week, so naturally no sign of them on the table. A further quote on Munoz:
Glasner says the following: "We can now go into the dressing room and we are managing almost everyone. We were managing his knee now for a few weeks. Then it was just yesterday that it was too risky. We never take any risk. And it just made sense to give him a break."
Palace defenders occupy 3 of the top 5 scoring defenders; the others are Chalobah and Gabriel. There is decent clean sheet potential this week for Chelsea, hence Cucurella makes the table home to Everton.
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However, their next 5 are Newcastle, Villa, Bournemouth, and Man City.
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Their run from GW21 is best in the league when I can see myself adding a couple of Chelsea assets.
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GW21 is 7th January where they have Fulham away, GW22 Brentford home. Maybe GW22 is the entry point.
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The run is Fulham, Brentford, Palace, West Ham, Wolves, Leeds, Burnley. Keep that one at the back of your head.
O'Reilly and Gvardiol's minutes are a little tricky to predict for next gameweek; they have Real Madrid away on Wednesday.
- The full list of teams playing midweek in Europe before GW16 are Chelsea, Liverpool, Spurs, Arsenal, Newcastle, Man City, Forest, Villa, and Palace.
