FPL GW16 Players To Buy

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👋 Welcome back for another article.

Who are the best players to buy for GW16 and beyond? Let's go through each position nice and simple.

🧤 Goalkeepers

GW16 marks the start of a solid long-term run for Brentford. Leeds home first, then they have Wolves, Bournemouth, Spurs, Everton, Sunderland, Chelsea, Forest and Villa.

• As far as cheaper keepers, Kelleher leaps out for only 4.5m.

• They are 11th best for expected goals conceded (xGC) so firmly midtable, but a midtable defence does not equate to average points when it comes to keepers.

• Look at Roefs as an example: 64 points is only a couple off the top spot, even though Sunderland are actually fifth worst defence for xGC, which might also surprise you.

• Brentford have conceded 5 fewer big chances than Sunderland, 46 fewer shots, 39 fewer in the box. So maybe a couple of takeaways there.

Raya is top of the table this week as Arsenal face Wolves home at the Emirates, then it's Leno second playing Burnley away, Alisson after that joint with Kelleher and Sanchez.

Raya is the first 6m keeper since the 2021/22 season where Ederson, Alisson and Mendy were all 6m.

• Liverpool play Brighton home, Chelsea have Everton home. So it's actually another great looking week for the free hit if you are still sitting on it.

• If you have already made transfers and then free hit, you get them back, so basically anyone free hitting this week will have 5 free transfers in GW17.

Ramsdale is in at the bottom of the table. Pope is expected back around GW18 though, so it's not worth it for the sake of 4 gameweeks potentially. So yeah, as I was saying earlier, Roefs is only 2 points off the top spot, which belongs to Raya. Raya just became the first 6.0m goalkeeper since the 2021/22 season, so as far as points per million, he is bad. It's just a case of nailing the right alternative keeper if you don't want to spend that kind of money.

Goalkeeper

Points

Raya

66

Pickford

66 (Tied)

Roefs

64

Henderson

63

Sanchez

57 (Tied)

Vicario

57 (Tied)

🛡️ Defenders

The Arsenal defenders are all over the place right now because Calafiori is now suspended after picking up a fifth yellow, Gabriel is injured, Saliba might be back for the next game.

• Timber is therefore the safest option right now and is the highest scoring Arsenal defender, though a pricy 6.5m.

• That said, it is worth mentioning that it wasn't long ago we used to spend way more than that on the likes of Robertson, Trent, or going back a bit further Alonso, etc. So I actually don't think 6.5m is bad. If Arsenal's defensive form continues over the whole season, next year he will be 7m, Gabriel 6.5m.

Anyway, with Gabriel currently sidelined, Hincapie is a genuinely good pick, albeit a shorter-term option and you are probably going to have to sell after about 4 games. Those 4 are Wolves home, Everton away, Brighton home, Villa home. So 3 home games in 4, in fairness. He's a nice stop-gap for 5.4m. If Saliba is confirmed back, then he is a viable pick too, though Timber could prove worth the extra 0.5m given his upside.

Andersen has a great run of games himself, a potential bargain for 4.5m over this run given his rate of defcons and clean sheet potential. He has hit two 10-pointers this season just from a clean sheet and defcon.

Palace face City this week, so naturally no sign of them on the table. A further quote on Munoz:

Glasner says the following: "We can now go into the dressing room and we are managing almost everyone. We were managing his knee now for a few weeks. Then it was just yesterday that it was too risky. We never take any risk. And it just made sense to give him a break."

Palace defenders occupy 3 of the top 5 scoring defenders; the others are Chalobah and Gabriel. There is decent clean sheet potential this week for Chelsea, hence Cucurella makes the table home to Everton.

• However, their next 5 are Newcastle, Villa, Bournemouth, and Man City.

• Their run from GW21 is best in the league when I can see myself adding a couple of Chelsea assets.

• GW21 is 7th January where they have Fulham away, GW22 Brentford home. Maybe GW22 is the entry point.

• The run is Fulham, Brentford, Palace, West Ham, Wolves, Leeds, Burnley. Keep that one at the back of your head.

O'Reilly and Gvardiol's minutes are a little tricky to predict for next gameweek; they have Real Madrid away on Wednesday.

• The full list of teams playing midweek in Europe before GW16 are Chelsea, Liverpool, Spurs, Arsenal, Newcastle, Man City, Forest, Villa, and Palace.

⚽ Midfielders

This week Saka tops our table on 6.7 points, Bruno 6.4, Palmer 5.7.

Captaincy

Is it the week to go against Haaland captain?

• Wolves home is an incredible fixture for Arsenal.

• Saka has returned in his last 3 matches, 4 of his last 5, though only 1 double-digit return all season, so he has lacked the explosiveness you want in a captain.

• Haaland on the other hand has had 5 double-digit returns.

Is it time to buy Palmer again after his first start on his return from injury last gameweek?

• For 10.3 it's an expensive gamble. He missed a couple games at the start of the season, then returned, then picked up an injury again, and now he is just back again.

• That run of games mentioned earlier could be the perfect timing to look at Palmer, because that is a good month to assess his form and fitness before committing.

• However, on a free hit, it's one to consider as a one-week punt for sure.

It's the last week before players leave for AFCON. I wrote a completely free AFCON guide which is on the Focal app and fpl.page if you would like to read it, I will put it in the description. One part of that includes a list of notable players leaving for AFCON, notable as in important players for their teams, or maybe their departure is notable because other teammates could benefit or they could be a team to target now.

So Mbeumo and Dango are on the table and on a free hit they look fantastic, but obviously don't rush to buy when you will literally need to sell them straight away.

Rice is now the top scoring midfielder with 84 points, 2 goals, 5 assists, and 14 points from defcon in 7 games.

• At current pace, that is a 212 point season for Rice, which is crazy for 7.1m. He is basically a slow and steady trickle of points, which really does add up when it's consistent.

• Semenyo for comparison is the opposite of that, in his first 8 games 10 goal involvements, then no returns in 7 games since. Both types of assets have their merits.

• Bruno G is the exact same as Rice, just 3 points behind him with a similar blend of goal involvements plus defcons.

Team of the season is still a back 5:

• Raya, Guehi, Munoz, Chalobah, Gabriel, Lacroix, Rice, Semenyo, Bruno G, Haaland and Thiago.

We were talking about Chelsea and their upcoming fixture run, the other one to look at is Everton. Theirs starts in a couple of gameweeks time.

• From GW18 it is Burnley, Forest, Brentford, Wolves, Villa, Leeds, Brighton, Fulham, Bournemouth, Man Utd. That is all the way from the end of December to the end of February, which really makes the likes of Dewsbury-Hall, Pickford, Tarkowski, Keane, Ndiaye appealing.

• Ndiaye is away for AFCON soon, of course, but look at him on his return.

• Dewsbury-Hall is the fifth top scoring mid, Ndiaye is sixth.

• Chelsea and Arsenal next so no rush to buy now, but perhaps GW18 onwards is the one.

Foden has seen what must be a record number of price changes. I think that was 5 rises in 7 days. He has been unbelievable these last few games. FPL probably should have adjusted the price change multiplier after topping us up to 5 transfers because the rate of rises has gone absolutely crazy in the lead-up to getting those transfers and since getting them.

Gordon came away with a 10-pointer last gameweek.

• The issue with him is that rotation risk and possible early subs when he does start. Some went there earlier in the season when we found out he was on pens from CL and regretted it.

• Minteh has Liverpool away next (3.7 points for him). Enzo and Szoboszlai are at 4.3.

Harry Wilson 3.8. He is an interesting one for 5.2m. It feels like every season he tends to go through these patches of form where he becomes a talking point. 2 goals, 2 assists in his last 3.

• Personally, not my type of FPL asset, but very much down to preference. He almost never gets 90 minutes, the occasional benching, and sometimes even a pre-60 minute sub. However, he is only 5.2m.

• I would rather Dewsbury-Hall, who has some set pieces, basically 90 minutes every game, and is nailed.

• For even cheaper, Stach is looking good recently, only 4.8m. He seems to have recovered from his injury now.

🎯 Forwards

This week Haaland leads with 5.7 points, Saka for comparison 6.7 points, Bruno 6.4. So Haaland actually sits in third this week. Though last time there was a week like this Bruno got defcon and nothing more while Haaland hauled against Fulham.

Thiago is the #1 priority forward to buy this week if you have not got him.

• We talked about Brentford's fixture run at the start of the article.

• 11 goals this season, 6.9m.

The other budget forward I quite like is Raul.

• He is nailed with Munoz out injured for ages still (6.2m) and they have some really nice fixtures ahead: Fulham, Burnley next, then Forest home, West Ham away.

• For even cheaper, Ignor Jesus has been getting good minutes under Nuno but only 1 goal, 1 assist all season.

The last player to mention is Bowen. Now they have Villa and Man City, so don't buy now. However, 66 points places him as the third top scoring forward and West Ham's fixtures from GW18 are excellent.

• Two home games to Fulham and Brighton in a row, then Wolves away, Forest home, and so on all the way until GW26.

• If Nuno gets them ticking, you just know Bowen will be a crucial part of their form and could be the ultimate differential from GW18.

Thanks for reading!