Welcome back for another article.
⚽ GW13 Top Transfers & Free Hit Picks 🎯
Who are the best players to buy for GW13? Lots of free hits active this week as well, so there's plenty of fun one-week picks to look at too.
Arsenal are away to Chelsea, which reduces the appeal of Arsenal assets, hence the free hit consideration, plus some really good fixtures like Brentford home to Burnley, Man City home to Leeds.
🧤 Goalkeepers
- Therefore it's Donnarumma top of the table this week on 4.2 projected points, an immediate response needed after the loss to Newcastle, and despite that loss where they conceded 2.2 xG to Newcastle, they're still the second best team for xGC after 13 games played. 12.68 xGC, only Arsenal are ahead with a ridiculously low 6.21 xGC.
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Though naturally, if we're talking one-week punts on a free hit, then you might prefer a Man City defender given the upside of O'Reilly as a one-week punt.
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Kelleher is second on the table for that Burnley fixture, or joint second with Martinez in fact - both on 4.0 points. Villa play home to Wolves, which is another stand-out fixture.
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Brentford have actually been 6th best for xGC, though just the 2 clean sheets, 19 goals conceded. Villa are 13th, but with twice as many clean sheets.
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Donnarumma and Raya are joint top together for their next 5, therefore if you have the City keeper and were thinking of switching, it's potentially a waste of a transfer - perhaps in GW16 when Arsenal have Wolves home and we've got 5 free transfers.
🛡️ Defenders
The defenders table looks very interesting this week, which again lends credit to free hit 13's appeal, there's some players here you may not want long term but look great in isolation for GW13. Namely Brentford and Villa defenders.
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Collins is top of all defenders this week, he's got an eye for goal, 2 goals, 7 assists last season in fact. 9.5 defcons per 90 as well places him in the Top 10 defenders.
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Van den Berg has averaged 9 per 90.
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You're unlikely to get defcons from Cash but he's got even more of an eye for goal, scoring twice this season, 12 shots is third highest among defenders.
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The only reason O'Reilly doesn't appear on the table is his expected minutes, his default minutes are on 59 to account for possible benchings. 773 minutes this season, divide by 12 is 64 minutes per game. If you make a correct call on him starting vs Leeds then he's gold, 90 minutes puts him on 5.4 points which is top of all defenders.
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We may or may not get some clues from the midweek footy, to remind you there's a ton of European games before GW13 so the general advice is have a think about what you want to do but make your moves later in the week.
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The following teams all play - Chelsea, Man City, Newcastle, Arsenal, Liverpool, Spurs, Villa, Forest and Palace. 9 teams.
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Gvardiol is the potentially safer alternative to O'Reilly but lower ceiling from that probable LCB role.
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A goal and clean sheet has seen Munoz rise to 5.9m now - is it too late to buy? Nah I wouldn't say so. Talked about him in the transfer plans and ultimately he's got the same goal involvement total as Rogers, Gakpo, Doku. 1 more than Sarr and Bowen even now. Basically a midfielder for 5.9m that gets you 4 points for any clean sheets.
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The Palace defence is very heavily owned and obviously many of us already have Richards, Lacroix, Guehi - it's not bad to double up, or swap one to Munoz if you have the luxury. The earlier table showed they're fifth best for expected goals conceded. Double defence is potentially a little overinvested, Chelsea, Newcastle, Man City are ahead of them defensively and you wouldn't double up with their assets would you.
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The other great thing about him is despite how attacking he is he's completely nailed. Last season who remembers when they had DGW32 then DGW33 back to back? It was an absurd schedule and the likes of Eze, Mateta, Sarr got terrible minutes over those games, Munoz played 90 every game.
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One thing to point out on the free hit, is that although no Arsenal defenders are on the table you could hedge with Timber - just in case they shut Chelsea out. Arsenal defence was around 100% effective ownership last gameweek so there is a big rank threat there if you don't own any of them.