👋 Welcome back for another article.
The international break is coming to a close and it's time to start thinking about FPL again, GW12 next. Who are the best players to buy? Let's take a look at the best picks in all positions. Projection data used is from FPL Review.
🧤 Goalkeepers
The biggest news from the break has to be Gabriel's injury from an FPL perspective—we'll talk lots about that in a minute.
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It's the north London derby, Arsenal home to Spurs, which has Raya top for GW12 on 4.1 points.
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He's actually second top scoring keeper despite all the clean sheets, 3 points behind Roefs.
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There's always a random 4.5m keeper that does well, isn't there, that are hard to predict.
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Raya is top of all keepers for the next 5 projections as well. If you've got him already you're in a strong position because he looks set-and-forget until at least the second wildcard whenever you use that in the second half of the season, even then you maybe keep hold.
Petrović looks the best value pick right now if you're spending less in goal. Bournemouth's run is West Ham, Sunderland, Everton, Chelsea, Man Utd, Burnley.
If you've got Mamardashvili one thing to keep a close eye on is Alisson's return, which isn't far away now, possibly even GW12. Slot said before the break he expects him fit for the next match anyway. It's a shame Lammens is 5m, he could've been really interesting for 4.5m.
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Since his debut in GW7 he's prevented 1.5 xG.
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xG prevented measures the quality of a keeper with xGOT minus goals conceded.
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He's prevented 1.5 xG which places him joint third.
Although goalkeepers are generally rare because outfield players score better, if you've got an underperforming keeper you can definitely make the case for that switch to Raya.
Arsenal's defence has been absurdly good. Here's the latest defensive team data from Scout:
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Only 6.1 xGC.
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Next best is Man City's 10.4.
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Then Newcastle with 11.4 xGC.
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Then Palace fourth 12.7
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7 clean sheets, only 5 conceded in 11 games.
While Man Utd's attacking data has been very good, defensively it's very poor: 16.78 xGC ranks fourth worst, even worse than Wolves amazingly. Some food for thought for those of you looking at De Ligt as a Gabriel replacement.
🛡️ Defenders
What's the latest with Gabriel? He was forced off injured while playing for Brazil, missing their second friendly.
The Brazilian Football Confederation released the following statement:
"Arsenal player Gabriel Magalhaes was re-evaluated this Sunday (16) and underwent imaging tests that revealed a muscle injury in his right thigh.
"Therefore, the player will not be travelling with the team to the match against Tunisia in Lille. No other player will be called up to replace him."
So that's what we currently know, what we don't yet know is how long he's out. Could be 1 game, could be 5.
If he's going to miss a few games then there's a strong case for selling.
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The defenders table this week is Timber, Van Dijk, Munoz as the top 3.
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It's fair to say these look the best 3 replacements if Gabriel's out a while.
Arsenal signed some incredible reinforcements in the summer, Hincapié and Mosquera have both looked fantastic when given game time. So this does not necessarily impact the Arsenal defence much.
Looking at the next 5 projections:
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Timber and Van Dijk are in the top 5 and they're basically dead even: 21.4 points vs 21.3.
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3 clean sheets for Liverpool this season, it seems like many have written them off. Are we being a bit too harsh on them?
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Obviously there is a drop off compared to last season, however the fixtures are incredible: Forest, West Ham, Sunderland, Leeds, Brighton, Spurs, Wolves, Leeds.
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They've conceded 12.35 non-penalty xG this season which actually ranks fifth best.
Gabriel owners - if he's out for a while, who is your replacement? Timber and Munoz are the top 2 defenders for expected goal involvement this season, top 2 for touches in the opponent's box. Munoz is undeniably a very exciting pick as well given how attacking he is.
Referring back to Bournemouth's fixture run, you could go down cheaper to Senesi or likewise Lacroix; that frees up a lot of money for reinforcements elsewhere. Just be mindful—what if you wanted to go back to double Arsenal defence? Does that become tricky if you downgrade Gabriel and spread the money?
Elsewhere in the Arsenal defence, despite leaving Italy camp due to injury, Arsenal expect Calafiori to be available from next week.
Looking at even cheaper defenders, for 4.5m and under:
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Andersen is top with 18.9 points for the next 5.
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Then Richards just behind.
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Then Truffert with 16.8.
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Keane 16.0.
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For even cheaper: Alderete and Mukiele 15.0, Rodon 14.8.
So if we're ranking Gabriel replacements to summarise: it's Timber and Van Dijk joint first, then Munoz. Now, Saliba is technically slightly ahead of Munoz there so what about him? This one's down to preference; he's nailed but lacks goal threat considerably compared to the others. For 0.1m more, Timber just makes more sense. It's not out of the question for White to get a league before the new year, I would actually expect it to happen—and it's just whether Timber's attacking returns make up for that one benching. You'd expect it should.