⚽ Welcome back for another article
4m defenders coming in clutch again, 52 points all out. Rodon and Enzo joined the team, and it was Enzo I had high hopes for home to Sunderland, but it was Rodon who set the tone for the gameweek with a goal, 11 defensive contributions, and maximum bonus points for a 13 pointer in the first game.
You might have seen my FPL Walk video with Harry and Ross, who came over to watch the games. Harry started him, Ross benched him, so emotions were running high haha.
- Another Arsenal clean sheet! Gabriel got the start after some question marks there.
- That's 6 clean sheets in 9; on average a goal conceded every 3 games is wild.
- Haaland remains the only player who has even scored in open play vs Arsenal this season.
There were some disappointments, if I'm allowed to say that after a Rodon haul:
- The entire midfield blanked: Ndiaye, Semenyo, Bruno, Enzo. Bruno did get defcon points. Are you guys counting 2 defcon points as a return?
- Captain Haaland blanking as well, the first time since GW2 he's failed to score, which is also wild.
- Joao Pedro and Gyokeres with 5 blanks in a row as well.
Well done if any of you had Van de Ven! A 23 pointer is absolutely insane, the second biggest score any player has achieved this season. Timber with 24 points is the biggest so far.
By the way, looking at the top scoring players each week this season, 6 of the 9 have been defenders—two thirds! Have a guess how many were defenders at this stage last season... just one, which was Keane who became the first defender in GW9. Quite an interesting observation.
Anyway, a green arrow to 633k! Two transfers made, let me run you through what I've done and whether there's scope to make further transfers.
🧤 Goalkeeper
It's of course Raya, who faces Burnley away.
- Burnley are bottom in the league for expected goals with 6.82 in total.
- Only 8 big chances in 9 games (also worst), as is 53 chances created.
- Can Arsenal go another week without conceding? If you plot non-penalty xG conceded and shots against per game, Arsenal are such a ridiculous anomaly they almost don't fit on this graph. Newcastle are also fantastic, as are Leeds, by the way, who are near Man City, which is very impressive.
🛡️ Defence
A change in defence has been made; it's Munoz, Gabriel, and Mukiele.
This was a really big call, and I spent a long time going back and forth on this because it's Senesi who has made way for Munoz. I was a bit late to the Senesi train, so I only made 0.1m profit when I sold. If I decide to buy back in a few weeks, then I'll only lose 0.1m maximum. The big talking point this week is Palace due to their turning fixtures. There's a world where he could be a 10+ week hold until the new year.
I did have the choice to buy Richards or Lacroix instead, which would've allowed me to keep Senesi. Lacroix I really rate for only 5m; I prefer him to Richards. FPL is all about trying to put yourself in a position to get lucky, and Munoz is that type of player.
- He plays like a winger; his shot heatmap this season resembles Salah's, even.
- 2.62 expected goal involvement is basically the same as Kudus, who is on 2.65. It's higher than Foden, Rice, Reijnders, Gordon.
- I like to sort of tell myself it's like having an extra mid, who gets you clean sheets, so this week it's a 2-5-3 formation almost.
- Looking at the past two seasons, 12 goal contributions is 1st in the league among defenders.
- 48 shots is 1st.
- 49 chances created from open play is 1st.
- 141 touches in the opponent's box is first.
Gabriel is now the top scoring defender with 68 points. At current pace, he'd be on for a 280 point season, which of course won't happen, but it shows just how ridiculously good he and Arsenal defence have been.
- 55% clean sheet odds this week is top.
- Fulham second with 40%.
- Newcastle and Man City 38%.
- Palace 31%—though a clean sheet is almost a bonus with Munoz. Last season he had 11 clean sheets, 10 goal involvements, so 21 returns, basically.
I forgot to talk about defcons, actually. Senesi has been incredible, so it wasn't a transfer without risk, especially their fixture swing in GW12 after Man City and Villa are played. 12.76 per 90 for Senesi. Mukiele starts for me this week, playing Everton home. He's third among defenders after van Dijk. There is a world where I buy van Dijk in GW12 or 13 rather than Senesi and run with that set-and-forget back 3 of Van Dijk, Munoz, Gabriel. Andersen is on 11.4 per 90. If he's without a shadow of a doubt fit and available for GW10, then I'll start him over Mukiele.
Lacroix 11.11 per 90 is very good. Richards not far behind. Richards was not in Palace's midweek squad in the league cup with a minor injury.
🧠 Midfield
In midfield, it's Ndiaye, Semenyo, Bruno, and Enzo.
Not the best start to life as an Enzo owner: a 2-1 home loss to Sunderland and an Enzo blank. Palmer is reportedly not too far away from a return, but he's an easy hold for a while for sure. Spurs away next, which could be a more open game.
Despite the blank, besides defcons, I was pleased with Bruno's performance vs Brighton; very much passed the eye test. 5.91 xGI this season is more than any midfielder, though of course a couple of pens in there.
So it's attacker vs defender with Ndiaye vs Mukiele. It happens sometimes; hopefully, I get a return from one or the other. Ndiaye has been remarkably good for defcons, which I did not expect. I didn't know he was so good defensively, honestly. 10.85 defcons per 90 this season, Bruno 10.91. For comparison, defensive mids like Palhinha, Xhaka are averaging similar numbers.
You can make a case for benching Semenyo given he has Man City away, if you've got a strong bench. Right now, he looks capable of scoring against anyone. In fact, not even right now—some of you will remember I had him for the majority of last season when he was 5.5m, and he kept scoring against top teams when I benched him. I benched his goals against Man City, Chelsea, and I think Forest and Man Utd.
🎯 Forwards
Up front is the second change made; it's Mateta, Haaland, and Gyokeres.
- Did you know Crystal Palace are the top team in the league for expected goals? Quite remarkable, really: 17.84 is top. Man Utd are second with 16.68, which is actually also a bit surprising. If you didn't know that already, there's no way you'd name those two as the top two.
- Did you know Mateta has had more big chances with 15 than Joao Pedro has shots taken with 11?
- Only Haaland has registered a higher xGI than Mateta.
So it's a move that just makes sense, but FPL is a random game, and Joao Pedro could finally start delivering; it's what happened once I sold Rogers and Watkins after 5 blanks each, anyway!
Just on early transfers: I very rarely make them, but I was in a strong position where I had 4 free transfers, and I felt there was enough team value swing up for grabs to consider it. It is risky, though, and most of the time not a risk I take. If I still want to buy Saka, it's potentially very tight for money as well.
Arsenal's 2.3 projected goals is top this week, or joint top with Man City, in fact. Gyokeres is on borrowed time now. A switch to Saka could be on the cards, or Mbeumo, which then frees up the money for Van Dijk from GW12 or 13. It's madness to sell Gyokeres before Burnley away, though, so he's staying another week.
Haaland is captain this week. Bournemouth home is an amazing fixture, and to be honest, it's probably going to be set and forget Haaland for a while. GW11 Man City have Liverpool, which last season would be a more tempting captaincy change, but this season Liverpool home is not a terrible fixture necessarily for Haaland.
🪑 The Bench
So the bench is Dubravka, Andersen, Stach, and Rodon.
Andersen also not in the midweek league cup squad with an injury. There might be a chance he plays in GW10, and if that happens, then the Munoz move was less pressing this week, as it would've been Andersen, Gabriel, and Mukiele back 3. It was a difficult spot because waiting would mean potentially not being able to afford buying Saka if that's what I want to do. I may not want to get Saka, but I really wanted to leave the option open.
There are a couple of routes to Saka:
- Selling Gyokeres to Thiago, then Enzo to Saka, and Stach to a 4.5m mid like King, or even Ndiaye to Minteh. That would be 3 transfers, and I'd be on a 3-4-3.
- Another option for a 3-5-2 is Gyokeres to Guiu, Stach to Saka, and then Ndiaye or Enzo to Minteh.
Both those paths require 3 free transfers, and I'd potentially do it in GW12 or 13.
I've still got 2 free transfers after those 2 moves, only 0.1m in the bank, so the obvious thing to do is to roll the other transfers right now. Hopefully, no issues pop up midweek in the league cup or training because in theory I can roll in GW11 as well to take me back to 4 free transfers.
Please note my team and plans aren’t locked in and can change!