Welcome back for another article 📄
This is set to be the biggest FPL season EVER with a record number of sign ups in the first 24 hours. 🚀
The next article in the pre-season series is players to avoid. These are players that in my opinion should be left out of your drafts, for various reasons which we'll get in to now.
There's two halves to this article, first let's cover off players who are at risk due to the World cup. 🏆
Let me explain. After the World Cup All players are expected to undergo a 3-week rest period. Legally/contractually they are entitled to this rest and cannot be forced back earlier.
Players from Spain, France, Argentina, England therefore return to clubs August 10 - 12. Gameweek 1 starts August 21. Which is such a small gap and tiny pre-season like 10 days. Some players were barely involved for their countries if at all so it's not as simple as all players miss GW1, a few will be willing to return earlier as well while the majority will take the full 3-week rest before coming back. 🗓️
🚨 Players at Major Risk
So players at major risk. I've weighed in some of my own assessment here in the sense that some England players are here even though they get a slightly longer break, and some Spain players like Raya aren't.
The list of players at major risk is Saka, Merino, Rice, Zubimendi, Martinez from Villa and Martinez from Man Utd, Enzo, James, Mac Allister, Victor Munoz, Romero, Pedro Porro.
Saka and Rice third place at the World Cup and both will likely get time off at the start of the season, avoid them. Saka has an ongoing achilles issue, Rice has been suffering with nerve pain reportedly. Merino and Zubimendi unlikely to be in many drafts realistically but have to mention them. Goalkeepers can be slightly different, but it wouldn't be surprising if Martinez misses GW1 for Villa. 🚑
Likewise his teammate Enzo. Who knows if he'll be a Chelsea player by the time the window closes but right now he is and has a reasonable chance of missing GW1, along with James, who picked up an injury in the tournament and could miss GW1 with Gusto potentially starting the first match there. The other major risks are Mac Allister, Victor Munoz, Romero, Pedro Porro. Sounds like Romero is leaving Spurs anyway so certainly avoid, and Porro could be set to miss GW1.
⚠️ Players at Potential Risk
Let's take a look at the players at potential risk, this slide isn't necessarily avoids as opposed to everyone else in this article. These are the semi-finalists mostly who will get an extra day of rest essentially, plus a couple of finalists but didn't play in the tournament.
The list is Madueke, Eze, Raya, Konsa, Rogers, Rashford, Pino, Pickford, Anderson, Guehi, Spence.
Given Arsenal will almost certainly be without Saka and some midfielders these two are likelier to be involved GW1. It's worth noting some names here could just make the bench GW1 and come on as a middle ground, so not necessarily miss GW1 entirely. ⏳
It wouldn't be a complete surprise if Kepa gets GW1 then Raya thereafter, but we've got him down as only a potential risk and given he didn't play a minute in the World Cup I'd say 75/25 in favour of starting GW1. Same goes for Pickford, Anderson, Guehi and Spence in fact. We should know more much nearer GW1 in a few weeks. Konsa and Rogers were heavily involved throughout the tournament which could see them on the bench in GW1.
❌ Non-World Cup Avoids
Okay let's do part 2 of the article - players to avoid for reasons unrelated to the World Cup. 🚫
Tzolis has joined Arsenal for £34m, their Trossard replacement. 41 goal involvements in 52 games for Club Brugge last season in all comps, really impressive numbers. It's a huge step up to the Premier League though and more often than not new signings need some time to bed in, and in his case he's got Martinelli for competition, and they could even end up signing another winger. I've got him down as a wait and see. 🔍
Let's not sit on the fence, this next one's a hot take for sure. Gabriel. 8 million is the second most expensive a defender has ever been in FPL's 24 year history. He was unbelievable last season, goal involvement, clean sheets, defcon, he was everything you could want in a defender. It's a huge huge price tag though first of all, and secondly Saliba is out for months, plus some others expected to miss the start of the season like Rice. Arsenal have lost Saliba to injury before and not looked the same. Instead I'd monitor Raya, Mosquera and Timber. If any of those look set to start GW1 they seem much better value, Timber in particular if he's fit in time, 6.5m is a big saving and he's unbelievably good when fit. Do you agree or is Gabriel still worth it for 8m? 💰
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Potentially another hot take here, the second most owned 4m defender in the came. Van Ewijk. I was doing lots of research as always before I record a article, he is a decent player, well rated and he managed 11 goal involvements last season for Conventry in right back and right wing back. ⚽
Full backs from promoted teams that did well in the Championship may struggle to translate those numbers, plenty of examples in the past like Davis and Doughty. Defcon is a very reliable source of points for promoted defenders given they have to defend much more than better teams, so centre backs are where to go when picking those 4m defenders from Ipswich, Coventry or Hull. Therefore I'd opt for Thomas instead at Coventry who is also 4m.
Next up Digne. I don't care if he's not even in the Prem any more, it wouldn't be a players to avoid without Digne so he's in one last time. The ultimate FPL troll, years ago I started with him GW1 and he scored an own goal in the dying minutes of a game to wipe his own clean sheet. Just the absolute worst FPL asset most of the time, just when he pulls you in with some good performances he goes on a bad run. 🤡
Mukiele was so good last season, had him my team for the majority of the season given he was 4m. He was quite fortunate with some of his assets and has much lower defcon potential in right back, if that continues. That aside 5.5m is a massive price jump, he'll do very well to make that price tag worth it unfortunately.
The left back situation at Arsenal is unclear. Arteta will probably interchange between Hincapie and Calafiori in all likelihood so they're just too risky. If one gets injured then the other becomes an obvious pick, though even then it's not totally out of the question for Lewis-Skelly to play there. Avoid them both.
Senesi comes in at a whopping 6m. The king of defcon among defenders last season and now at Spurs. He's another one who could be at slight risk for GW1 given he was involved in the World Cup final, but that aside if you are backing Spurs to have a much better season, which I am given all the signings just opt for Van Hecke instead who is 1m cheaper. Van Hecke over Van de Ven for sure. 👑
I'd love to know what you all think about the Man City mids. Semenyo is cheaper than I expected at 8.5m and looks a perfect fine pick. Anderson is a great pick too, then you've got Cherki who is only 7.5m and Foden 7m. That's the cheapest Foden's been for 6 years. Both these two were incredible at times last season, Foden's hot streak was shorter lived for sure. I've got them both down as avoids purely because it's unclear how secure their minutes will be. Maresca could interchange the two, with Doku left wing, Semenyo right and one of these two playing through the middle. 🔄
⚖️ Jury's Out Picks
Lastly, we like to finish with a couple of jury's out picks.
These both have the potential to be incredible picks, Mateta is only 6.5m - but the reason we've got him down as a remains to be seen pick is his minutes, with Strand Larsen in the picture. Last season Mateta's minutes when he returned from injury were 30, 25, 31, 69, 25, 25, 59, 29, 13. Different manager now, but will he suddenly be a 80 - 90 minute man? I avoid all players that are unreliable for minutes. The longer a player is on the pitch the likelier they are to get you a return, so you want FPL assets in your team getting 90 - 100% of available minutes, not 50 - 75% every week. Those missed minutes add up significantly over a longer period. Three 60 minute subs is a full 90 minute match missed. ⏱️
Kroupi's an interesting one, reclassified as a midfielder, the joint biggest price rise this season now 7.5m. Probably on pens, 13 goals last season is insane for a teenager. 🌟
The fixtures are absolutely horrendous though, I was looking at the fixture ticker tool just now and over the opening 6 gameweeks they are rock bottom in the league. They have to face Man City, Newcastle and Chelsea away plus have Liverpool home. 🗓️
The fixture ticker tool is free by the way, go to fpl.page or search FPL Focal in the app store.
I was taking a look at the best rotations as well, if you highlight Coventry and sort by rotation I noticed Brighton rotate incredible well, so a pairing like Thomas and Kadioglu for only 4m and 4.5m could be really strong.
You'll probably find some better pairings. If you want to unlock extra features like sorting by rotation it's only 77p a week. It supports the running costs and development of this project. 📲
See you soon for the next one!