Welcome back for another article. 📖
134 points all out and a green arrow to 10k. 📈
Two huge weeks in a row after wildcarding and then bench boosting, the season was slipping away after 4 consecutive reds but there's still hope of a strong finish. Almost all the DGW players delivered, in fact the only ones who didn't were Chelsea players. Joao Pedro hadn't missed a game all season, to then miss both in a double gameweek is actually peak FPL, Palmer also missing the second game very unfortunate, especially if you captained. 🚑
🗣️ Rosenior on Palmer: "Palmer's had some tightness in his hamstring, which he's been carrying. He's going to be out for his game, and we'll see how he moves on for the FA Cup semi-final."
🗣️ Rosenior on João Pedro: "I think João Pedro will be good for Sunday (FA Cup semi-final), but this game has come too close for him."
Van Hecke with an assist and clean sheet across the two games. Gross has assisted in 3 consecutive games, wildcard hero for sure with 6, 8 and 8 points the last 3. The last time he assisted in 3 games in a row was his debut Brighton season, 2017. 🪄
There's still some tough gameweeks to go though, with 1 free transfer for GW35, and there's a chance we get another big curveball in the run in with Bournemouth and Man City potentially doubling in GW36 instead, which would mean a GW37 blank for Bournemouth, and Palace doubling in GW37 instead. I've made a graphic showing the potential schedule and there's actually a strong chance it plays out this way and I've not seen it talked about.
It would be dependent on Man City beating Southampton in the FA Cup, and there have been a couple of breadcrumbs on this schedule. Bournemouth would have Fulham away and Man City home in DGW36, Man City would have Brentford home and Bournemouth away. Bournemouth would blank in GW37, and Palace would be the only team doubling in GW37 with Brentford and Man City away. 🗓️
The alternative schedule if City progress is they and Palace double in GW36, with no one else doubling, and no one would blank in 37. So keep that one at the back of your head, we're likely to know after City have played Southampton on the weekend coming. We could just get a Man City + Palace DGW36/37 and no Bournemouth involvement.
So, free hit is active, the final chip of the season! 🃏
🧤 Goalkeeper
In goal Raya comes back in for his final appearance in the team this season. Newcastle home who have generated 10 big chances over the last 6, only Palace and Wolves have generated fewer, in a real dip of form and looking like they could end the season on a whimper whereas it's all to play for for Arsenal.
🛡️ Defenders
So unsurprisingly I've doubled up on Arsenal defence with Gabriel, the back 3 is Porro, Van Dijk and Gabriel. 🛡️
Arsenal have been given a 38% chance of a clean sheet, only Liverpool higher and I'm looking at those top 3 myself on the free hit. Liverpool 40%, Arsenal 38%, Spurs 34%.
Marmardashvili is expected to be out for 2-4 weeks after a gash last match, and Alisson is still out so third choice GK Woodman is expected to come in. That may not help them though credit to him Liverpool actually looked a bit more settled and composed if anything after he came on. Best of luck to him. It doesn't seem to have shifted Liverpool's clean sheet odds so I'm not putting any weight into that affecting the VVD inclusion, though Palace haven't struggled to score against Liverpool in recent years.
I know what you're thinking when I showed the back 3, yes I own a Spurs player. It's just for one week and it's against rock bottom Wolves, even without the goal last match he'd almost certainly have been in the team just given his general goal threat. He's taken 58 corners this season, 5 shots off direct free kicks. You might think this is mental but I genuinely think double Spurs defence is valid on a free hit, though I struggled to lose Raya for Kinsky, or Van Dijk and Gabriel. ⚡
⚽ Midfielders
In midfield it's Bruno, Rice, Salah, Szoboszlai and Cunha. 🏃♂️
Over the last 6 gameweeks 12.98 expected goals conceded by Newcastle ranks second worst in the league only behind Wolves. So I'm keen to include an Arsenal attacker in though the options are limited, Eze is tempting but I'm leaning towards Rice. Saka is near a return but his minutes will probably be ropey. Also just on double defence and Rice, Gordon is a doubt for the Arsenal trip after missing training, Livrament is definitely out and might miss the rest of the season, Joelinton is suspended.
Pulling up projected goals for Blank Gameweek 34 Liverpool and Arsenal are the top 2, both on 2.3 goals. Then Man Utd and Spurs joint second most with 1.9. So you can see the foundation of the free hit very clearly looking at the clean sheet and goalscoring odds. I'm not going to overthink it. 🎯
Salah's 10 pointer vs Everton last match his biggest score he's registered this season, it's been a season to forget, but at this point if Liverpool can secure Champions League fans will take that. There's only 5 points above Brighton, and only 3 points behind Villa and Man Utd so the table can quickly change.
For the last week ever Salah will be in my FPL team, and Szobo joins him who has defcon in 10 games plus 9 goal involvements, 4 double digit returns. Gakpo and Wirtz do look good as well. I don't think I've owned Szobo all season somehow, fell into the trap of owning Gakpo twice and both times disappointed so that's enough to put me off a third time however he is honestly fine on a free hit. 🔴
It's been reported that Man Utd are hopeful Cunha will be fit to face Brentford, he was subbed off due to slight discomfort in his right groin in the Chelsea game. Going to keep an eye on that one and hopefully Carrick is asked about injury updates in his presser, if he's a doubt at the deadline I'll swap to Mbeumo, who faces his old club Brentford at Old Trafford.
🎯 Forwards
Up front it's Thiago and Bowen. 🏹
The two spots I'm still deliberating is Szoboszlai and Thiago. The two alternatives I like most are Wilson and Solanke.
Wilson has Villa home and we're all away how good he's been. He's in team of the season for a reason with 157 points so far. So you could actually align your free hit completely with team of the season minus the blankers. So Raya, Gabriel, Van Dijk, Bruno, Rice, Wilson and Thiago.
I think the biggest misconception in FPL is that you need differentials to gain rank, and that having a template team means you can't gain rank. My wildcard was very template minus a couple of alterations like keeping Thiago who bagged a brace in GW32, the rank climb has been significant so far despite a supposedly template team. My wildcard only had about 1,300 identical teams in the whole world as per LiveFPL's clone feature, and that's on a wildcard week let alone following weeks where teams fragment with free transfers. I've monitored it over the season and there's been lots of weeks where my relatively template team has not a single clone in the world. I think that's worth a mention because I use to play aggressive with big differentials and it's really hard to possess the willpower to stick to that strategy because as soon as it goes horribly wrong what do you do?
On the free hit I'm still open to swapping Thiago to Solanke given Wolves are now relegated and have been a team to target all season. It's the definition of fixture vs form that's for sure, all the mids and front 2 in this draft have the form, Solanke absolutely doesn't but his ceiling is very high. If you're chasing rank go for Solanke, you could even include Xavi Simons as well. 🍒
🪑 Bench + Transfer Plans
On the bench we've got Kinsky, Mukiele, Danso and Mane. 🪑
0.2m in the bank. If you can't afford this team then Xavi Simons or Wilson over Szobo is one way to free up money. Or Wilson over Cunha to free up even more.
Last time this season owning Mukiele as well, honourable mention to him as he's been unreal. Who remembers that Mukiele vs Alderete week, was Gameweek 6 and looked like it would go either way and Mukiele's produced some huge returns this season, 10 points, 17, 11, 14. I don't mind Mukiele or Roefs in a starting 11 on a free hit either. But yeah if you want a reminder of how much luck is involved in FPL look at that Mukiele vs Alderete week where I decided Mukiele. He needs 16 points in the final 5 games to be the greatest 4m defender of all-time, overtaking Lord Lundstrum. Though we can't really count it due to defcons can we. With those removed I imagine he's much further off. 🧤
What do you think of the team? See you soon for the next one.
Please note my team and plans aren’t locked in and can change!