This is a brand new weekly series of articles here, to guide you for the gameweek, every match.
🔮 GW13 Tactical Preview 🔮
- ⭐️ Breaking Down Every Game
- ⭐️ Rating FPL Prospects
- ⭐️ Predicting Results
🐝 Brentford vs Burnley
Brentford:
- Set up in a 4-4-2 and have a lot of threat on the counter
- Kelleher and the CBs can be error-prone
- They're at their best when the opposition tries to dominate the ball
- Thiago, Schade and Ouattara are all in good form
Burnley:
- Will most likely set up in a back 4 (see image)
- Often make errors on the ball which lead to counter-attacks
- Flemming is a good focal point and has been causing issues
- Not enough attacking threat to take advantage of opportunities
- Conceded 2 goals from corners in GW10
Analysis
Brentford are a very tough side to play at the Gtech. I expect Burnley to sit in their 4-4-2 and have to defend for long periods.
If Burnley make as many errors on the ball as they did against Chelsea, they will be punished. However, Burnley go long from the GKs (to avoid facing a high press), so if they are better on the ball, they could make things more difficult for Brentford.
Brentford can be exposed when they commit too many men forward - I expect Burnley's best chances to come in transition and/or when the game is stretched.
Unfortunately for them, Brentford also thrive in these situations and have them outgunned as far as attacking threat goes.
Prediction: Could see Burnley scoring but Brentford win!
FPL Ratings
- BRE Defence 🟢 - Decent chance of a CS + DEFCON
- BRE Attack 🟢 - Burnley made so many errors against Chelsea, Brentford can capitalise
- BUR Defence 🟠 - Good DEFCON opportunity
- BUR Attack 🟠 - Brentford aren't the strongest defence in the league but Burnley's attack is weak
🎯 Differential Pick: Dango (0.8%) - 4 returns in the last 4 GWs, I can see a haul coming!
🔵 Manchester City vs Leeds ⚪️
Manchester City:
- Will dominate the ball, overload central areas and try to find the free man (Image 1)
- Haaland's in great form
- Outside of Haaland, nobody has been clinical
- Can be vulnerable in transition
Leeds:
- Will set up in a 4-5-1 (Image 2)
- They lack attacking threat
- Their high press from GKs can be played through
- Low block isn't super well-drilled (Villa played through/around them quite easily at times)
Analysis
This could be a serious battering. I expect Leeds to press high from goal-kicks but I'd imagine City's quality will force them deeper into a low block.
If Leeds sit in a mid-block, I'm expecting a lot of goals. City are so good at cutting through teams and exploiting the space in behind (eg. Bournemouth and Liverpool games). If they sit deep, I still expect City to find their way through multiple times.
I do think Leeds will create chances on the counter (and potentially with their high press) but I simply don't see them outscoring City.
I expect City to score a lot of goals!
Prediction: Huge City win!
FPL Ratings
- MCI Defence 🟢 - Good chance of a CS
- MCI Attack 🟢 - I expect City to create a lot of chances no matter how Leeds approach this game
- LEE Defence 🔴 - Decent DEFCON opportunity but expect them to concede a lot of goals
- LEE Attack 🔴 - Their attack isn't clinical
🎯 Differential Pick: O'Reilly (4.4%) - Expect him to get into the box + good chance of keeping a CS
🐈⬛ Sunderland vs Bournemouth 🍒
Sunderland:
- Often dropped deep into their 5-4-1 against Fulham (see image)
- Their press can be effective but can leave them quite open when it's bypassed
- Their attack struggles to take advantage of opportunities
- They're quite good at playing through a press
Bournemouth:
- They press high in their 4-1-4-1
- Can struggle when they're playing against a solid low block
- Have enough attacking threat to take advantage of high lines and counter-attacks
- Defence + GK can be error-prone (Wilson's first goal last week)
Analysis
This should be an interesting game. Sunderland's 5-4-1 is good enough to soak up pressure and hit Bournemouth on the counter.
Bournemouth will press high so I'm interested to see if Sunderland play over the press or attempt to pass their way through. Hume and Reinildo invert from the WB positions, which often helps Sunderland evade pressure - this could be key. Similarly, Bournemouth can create good chances if they bypass Sunderland's high press.
If the game opens up and becomes end-to-end, I'd back Bournemouth to win (especially as Semenyo is back). Bournemouth try to force you into a chaotic game, so it will be interesting to see how Sunderland manage the game.
Overall, I think Sunderland can frustrate The Cherries but I can also see Bournemouth causing serious problems if this game becomes back-and-forth.
Prediction: I see Sunderland causing Bournemouth problems but the game eventually opening up - Draw!
FPL Ratings
- SUN Defence 🟠 - Good chance of DEFCON and a fair chance of a CS
- SUN Attack 🟠 - Should get chances but don't trust the attack
- BOU Defence 🟠 - Decent DEFCON opportunity with a small chance of a CS
- BOU Attack 🟠 - Could open up but Sunderland might sit deep and soak up pressure
🎯 Differential Pick: Isidor (3.4%) - Can see him getting chances on the counter
🍬 Everton vs Newcastle ⚫️
Everton:
- Play a 4-4-1-1, press high up the pitch and have a solid mid block (see image)
- Ndiaye and Grealish are excellent outlets - it's hard to pin Everton back for long periods
- Can be vulnerable when they press high
Newcastle:
- Press high and like to sit in their 4-5-1 mid block
- Have struggled to break defences down this season
- Their attack shows glimpses but hasn't fully clicked yet (maybe Barnes will prove me otherwise)
Analysis
I expect Everton to cause Newcastle a lot of problems. If they sit deep, I don't see Newcastle breaking through. I can see Ndiaye and Grealish causing serious problems in transition.
Whilst Everton's high press can be effective, I do think it can be exploited - I think this is one of Newcastle's best routes to scoring.
Overall, I think Everton will win if they let Newcastle have the ball and sting them on the counter. If it becomes more end-to-end, it could go either way (Everton lack a quality CF, so they can always waste chances).
Prediction: Everton win!
FPL Ratings
- EVE Defence 🟠 - Good chance of DEFCON and a fair chance of a CS
- EVE Attack 🟠 - I think this is the type of game they do well in
- NEW Defence 🟠 - Decent DEFCON opportunity but I don't see a CS
- NEW Attack 🟠 - Could open up but Everton can be very tough to break down
🎯 Differential Pick: Barnes (0.8%) - He's in great form and if Newcastle score, I expect him to be involved!
⚪️ Spurs vs Fulham 🏡
Spurs:
- Their attack is very weak - no focal-point CF and no solid winger
- They're good from set-pieces and have a good high press
- They lack progression on the ball (they struggle to threaten when they have the ball for long periods)
Fulham:
- Solid 4-4-2 (see image)
- Their attack hasn't clicked yet but Kevin and Chukwueze are showing good signs
- They've been playing Iwobi in the pivot, which makes them more attacking but less secure defensively
Analysis
Fulham can cause Spurs some serious issues here. I don't see Spurs being able to break down Fulham's 4-4-2. I think their best chance of scoring is from a set-piece, forcing a turnover with their press or on the counter.
The key for Fulham is to avoid opening up too much and allowing Spurs to profit in transition.
Overall, Spurs are in awful form and Fulham have all of the tools to win.
Prediction: Fulham win!
FPL Ratings
- TOT Defence 🟠 - Don't see a CS but decent DEFCON opportunity
- TOT Attack 🟠 - This could be red but it's a home fixture
- FUL Defence 🟠 - Decent DEFCON opportunity and decent chance of a CS
- FUL Attack 🟠 - Could see them scoring a few if Spurs don't turn up but their attack isn't ruthless
🎯 Differential Pick: Sessegnon (0.8%) - Very involved in their attacks down the left flank!
🦅 Crystal Palace vs Manchester United 👹
Palace:
- Very solid 5-4-1 (see image) and an underrated high press
- Extremely dangerous in transition
- Can be vulnerable when games are end-to-end
United:
- Most dangerous when they can play on the counter
- Struggle to break teams down
- Have had success with their high press (could be dangerous in this game)
Analysis
I think Palace will make life very difficult for United. Their 5-4-1/5-2-3 is tough to break down and is built to force turnovers. I can see Palace causing a lot of issues on the counter.
United also sit in a 5-4-1 when they defend deep and this could be the best way to keep Palace quiet. Palace can struggle when teams sit deep and play on the counter.
Overall, I expect Palace to sting United in transition and largely keep them quiet. If it opens up, I can see United having some joy, but I don't see Palace being this naïve.
Prediction: Palace win!
FPL Ratings
- CRY Defence 🟢 - Decent DEFCON opportunity and a pretty good chance of a CS
- CRY Attack 🟠 - Could be green but United's 5-4-1 could slow Palace down
- MU Defence 🟠 - Decent DEFCON opportunity but don't see a CS
- MU Attack 🔴 - Very tough away ground to score at
🎯 Differential Pick: Yeremy (0.2%) - Scored his first goal last week, expect him to start returning more often!
🥷 Aston Villa vs Wolves 🐺
Aston Villa:
- Happy to sit off in their 4-4-2
- Dangerous in transition
- Vulnerable when teams sit deep and play on the counter
Wolves:
- Edwards played a 5-3-2 (see image) last week. It wasn't THAT solid but it looked better than under Pereira.
- Played Arokodare and Strand Larsen in a front 2 (two target-men)
- Haven't got a creator in attack so they often waste opportunities
Analysis
This is a derby so I'm expecting a tense game. Villa are in good form but this is a tough match-up for them.
Wolves will likely sit deep in their 5-3-2 and ask Villa to play through them. At times, it was easy for Palace to play around Wolves' 5-3-2 and bypass their front 5. Villa can definitely take advantage of this.
Arokodare and Strand Larsen are two big presences that could provide Wolves with easy outlets. If Villa aren't secure in possession, this could lead to Wolves hitting them on the counter and Villa losing control of the game.
Overall, I think this should be a tight game.
Prediction: Draw!
FPL Ratings
- AVL Defence 🟠 - Decent DEFCON opportunity and fair chance of a CS
- AVL Attack 🟠 - Expect Wolves to sit deep and make life difficult
- WOL Defence 🟠 - Decent DEFCON opportunity but I don't see a CS
- WOL Attack 🟠 - Not the easiest fixture but Villa can always be vulnerable on the counter
🎯 Differential Pick: Strand Larsen (1.1%) - He's on pens and if Wolves score, he'll most likely be involved
🌳 Nottingham Forest vs Brighton 🕊️
Forest:
- Will likely sit deep in their 4-4-2 for long periods (see image)
- Gibbs-White, Jesus and Hutchinson have looked sharp
- Defence hasn't been as solid as last week's result may suggest
Brighton:
- Tend to struggle against solid low blocks
- Minteh and Welbeck are in great form
- They're defending well at the moment
Analysis
I expect Dyche to sit deep, let Brighton dominate the ball and play on the counter. Brighton have the quality to break through - Minteh can definitely cause issues (Salah had a good amount of space) and Brighton's attack is dangerous.
Forest's attack has looked good in the last couple of weeks and I expect them to have chances in transition.
Overall, this game will likely be won by the better attack. If Brighton can sustain pressure without giving the ball away cheaply, I can see them scoring 2+ goals. If Forest can use their moments on the counter, they can also score 2+ goals.
Prediction: Tight game - draw!
FPL Ratings
- NFO Defence 🟠 - Decent DEFCON opportunity and fair chance of a CS
- NFO Attack 🟠 - Could be green but Brighton have been solid in the last few weeks
- BHA Defence 🟠 - Don't see a CS, maybe a DEFCON opportunity
- BHA Attack 🟠 - NFO could be tough to break down
🎯 Differential Pick: Gibbs White (3.8%) - Scored in his last 3 games and looks good!
⚒️ West Ham vs Liverpool 🔴
West Ham:
- Will probably sit deep in a 5-4-1 (see image)
- Their defenders can be very poor
- Wilson is in great form (3 goals in last 2 games)
Liverpool:
- Looked decent attacking-wise against Forest
- Cannot defend set-pieces
- As soon as they concede, everything falls apart
Analysis
I expect Nuno's side to sit deep and make life very difficult for Liverpool. I don't think West Ham's 5-4-1 is impenetrable but Liverpool are struggling to score at the moment.
Bowen, Wilson, Paqueta and co offer enough threat on the counter to cause problems if Liverpool lose their duels. Konate was awful against Forest - a similar performance could make life very difficult for The Reds.
Overall, I expect West Ham to make life very difficult and be threatening on the counter. I think Liverpool can definitely break Nuno's block down - it's all about whether their defence can withstand West Ham's counter-attacks.
Prediction: Will be very tough but I think Liverpool will finally win!
FPL Ratings
- WHU Defence 🟠 - Decent DEFCON opportunity and a small chance of a CS
- WHU Attack 🟠 - Should get opportunities in transition but still a tough game
- LIV Defence 🟠 - Would be green if they were in form but not confident in a CS
- LIV Attack 🟠 - I expect WHU to be solid but could see it opening up based on game-state
🎯 Differential Pick: Isak (4.5%) - West Ham's CBs are poor, this is a good chance for him to get off the mark!
🔵 Chelsea vs Arsenal 🔴
Chelsea:
- Tend to turn it on in the big games
- Their defence can be vulnerable
- Will likely press very high
Arsenal:
- Will also press high (see image)
- Scary from set-pieces (but no Gabriel)
- Can be slightly flat in attack against low blocks
Analysis
I think both sides will press high, drop into their 4-4-2s very quickly and make this game very tight.
We haven't seen Hincapie tested yet, so it will be interesting to see how good a Gabriel replacement he is. Chelsea's CBs can also be vulnerable, especially when having to defend transitions.
Overall, I think this will be a very tight game and will be decided by moments of brilliance and/or big mistakes.
Prediction: Very tense game - Draw!
FPL Ratings
- CHE Defence 🟠 - Decent DEFCON opportunity and a small chance of a CS
- CHE Attack 🟠 - Don't expect too many chances
- ARS Defence 🟠 - Tough game but fair chance of DEFCON + CS
- ARS Attack 🟠 - Don't expect too many chances
🎯 Differential Pick: Merino (1.0%)